A joint policy report released on April 15, 2026, in Washington, D.C., warns that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could reduce economic growth in African countries by up to 0.2 percent in 2026, according to a press release by the African Development Bank Group (AfDB). The report, titled “Impacts of the Conflict in the Middle East on African Economies,” was jointly presented by the African Union Commission, AfDB, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). It was unveiled on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
African economies were already slowly recovering from the severe consequences of COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war, and rising trade tariffs when the Middle East conflict added new pressure. The report identifies three main channels through which the conflict affects Africa: surging prices of hydrocarbons, food products, and fertilizers; disruptions to global trade, logistics, and supply chains; and volatility in capital and foreign exchange markets. One anticipated impact is a surge in the price of agricultural inputs just as the farming season begins in many regions of the continent.
Kevin Urama, Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management at AfDB, presented the report and highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had significant consequences for transport and trade. Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the ECA, noted that 80 percent of the oil imported into Africa comes from the Middle East region, as well as 50% of refined petroleum. Gatete added that, as a result of these conflicts, 31 African countries were already experiencing currency depreciation.
Urama urged African governments not to panic or take hasty decisions that could harm their fiscal balances. The report recommends strategic inflation management, strict fiscal discipline for oil-exporting countries, and targeted social protection measures to shield the most vulnerable populations. It also calls on development partners, multilateral banks, and development finance institutions to provide emergency support through crisis response measures and technical assistance. United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed called for measures “to safeguard the gains already achieved at continental level,” stating:
“We must work to ensure that the Sustainable Development Goals under the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063 are achieved.”
The report urges the speedy operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and accelerated investment in renewable energy and the gas sector. It also calls for swift implementation of the New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD), for which AfDB recently concluded continent-wide consultations that led to the “Abidjan Consensus” on April 9, 2026. Governments are advised to strengthen regional and intra-African trade in oil and fertilizer markets and to diversify sources of energy, inputs, and food supplies.
