Can the recent hantavirus outbreak be a sign of a new pandemic? | Experts’ Opinions

By Experts Opinions

Can the recent hantavirus outbreak be a sign of a new pandemic? | Experts’ Opinions

For the past two weeks, the world has been living a sort of “déjà vu” moment after an outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) was reported in early May, on a cruise ship that departed from Argentina. Currently, there are around 12 global cases of hantavirus linked to the outbreak, while the unofficial number could be higher. Although both hantavirus and COVID-19 are single-stranded RNA viruses, hantavirus behaves differently from the coronavirus: research shows that its transmission between humans is very rare; while it has a high mortality rate, it is much less contagious and less likely to trigger another global crisis. However, people who have already lived through a global lockdown are concerned about the possibility of a pandemic similar to COVID-19. Although both the World Health Organization and the United Nations mention this is not the case, experts share various opinions. Explore their perspectives in the article below.

Key Takeaways:

  • A recent hantavirus outbreak linked to a cruise ship in the South Atlantic Ocean is currently under investigation by the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
  • Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne infections, although the Andes strain of the virus has shown limited human-to-human transmission, requiring close and prolonged exposure.
  • The virus is usually transmitted to people through contact with infected rodents or their urine, droppings, or saliva.
  • According to experts, global travel, environmental change, and increasing human interaction with animal ecosystems continue to create opportunities for zoonotic spillover events.
  • Strong collaboration between clinicians, laboratories, epidemiologists, animal health sectors, and public health authorities is essential for timely detection, contact tracing, and evidence-based decision-making.
  • The outbreak signals “a critical failure in One Health surveillance within high-density transit environments” according to some experts.

What is hantavirus?

Hantavirus is a family of more than 38 known viral strains, each carried by specific types of rodents. It does not spread through bites. Instead, humans usually become infected by inhaling dust contaminated by infected rodent urine, droppings, or saliva.

While there are dozens of strains, they generally attack the human body in two terrifying ways:

Organ failure: In Europe and Asia, the virus attacks the kidneys and blood vessels, causing internal bleeding and organ stress. The Puumala strain, responsible for most European cases, kills fewer than 1% of those infected; the Hantaan strain in East Asia carries fatality rates of 5 to 15%.

Respiratory collapse: In the Americas, the Andes strain of the virus is even more aggressive. It causes the lungs to rapidly fill with fluid, leading to total respiratory failure, with the body shutting down within days. It was this strain that was confirmed aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship. The World Health Organization (WHO) puts its case fatality rate at up to 50%. It holds one further distinction that makes the Hondius cluster so alarming. It is the only one of the 38 known strains capable of limited human-to-human transmission, previously documented only in family clusters in Argentina and Chile.

DevelopmentAid: What are the main causes behind the recent hantavirus outbreak, and should governments be more concerned about similar viruses in the future?

Jone Tawake, Surveillance Response Officer for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Fiji & TDR Global Asia Champion
Jone Tawake, Surveillance Response Officer for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Fiji & TDR Global Asia Champion

“While the recent hantavirus outbreak has understandably raised concern, current evidence does not suggest that it represents a new pandemic on the scale of COVID-19. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne infections, and although the Andes virus has shown limited human-to-human transmission, transmission generally requires close and prolonged exposure. However, the outbreak is an important reminder that countries should continue strengthening surveillance, risk communication, laboratory capacity, infection prevention measures, and multisector coordination through a One Health approach (One Health surveillance is an integrated approach to monitoring and analyzing health threats by combining data from human, animal, and environmental sectors – editor’s note). Global travel, environmental change, and increasing human interaction with animal ecosystems continue to create opportunities for zoonotic spillover events, making early detection and rapid response systems increasingly important. From my own experience working in public health surveillance, events like this reinforce how critical preparedness, timely information sharing, and coordinated public health response systems are across all areas of infectious disease control.”

Dr. Ljubica Latinovic, Senior international consultant for capacity and knowledge management for public health emergencies
Dr. Ljubica Latinovic, Senior international consultant for capacity and knowledge management for public health emergencies

“Although it is well established that the primary mode of hantavirus infection is through contact with rodents, the importance of environmental conditions and human behavior should not be underestimated. This case highlights the critical significance of the One Health approach, demonstrating how interaction with a particular host carrying the pathogen within a particular environment can increase the risk of an outbreak. This situation underscores the urgent need for governments to invest in preparedness and readiness for health emergencies, with the surveillance of human and animal diseases one of the key components, to reduce the risk of spillover events and the emergence of new diseases. Moreover, addressing this challenge demands a paradigm shift in understanding the drivers of outbreaks, which are shaped not only by pathogens themselves but also by factors such as urbanization, globalization, climate change, and other related issues.”

Busisani Dube, Chartered Geographer and Global Health Strategist
Busisani Dube, Chartered Geographer and Global Health Strategist

“The recent hantavirus outbreak exposes a critical failure in One Health surveillance within high-density transit environments. The root cause is compromised structural pest management, exacerbated by fragmented environmental monitoring. The strategic threat is not a Hantavirus pandemic, given its negligible human-to-human transmission, but the systemic inability of surveillance grids to intercept vectors before they breach international logistics hubs. This mandates rigorous geospatial mapping of transmission hotspots to contain localized spillover before it triggers an international incident.”

Kevin Nazar, PhD MSc. International Development Specialist
Kevin Nazar, PhD MSc. International Development Specialist

“The outbreak of cases of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) caused by Hantavirus was reported on a tourist cruise ship that set sail from Argentina on April 1 with 147 people to multiple destinations in the Atlantic Ocean. The Andean strain of this virus is transmitted by rodents and is the only one that can be transmitted between humans with high lethality. Initially, seven infected people and three deaths were reported during the first month of travel, which shows us again the potential for international spread of a virus that has not caused large outbreaks, but has a high lethality in almost half of the patients.”

DevelopmentAid: Even if the WHO and UN say hantavirus is not a pandemic, what lessons should countries learn to prevent future health crises? Could this outbreak transform into a new pandemic?

Jone Tawake, Surveillance Response Officer for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Fiji & TDR Global Asia Champion
Jone Tawake, Surveillance Response Officer for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Fiji & TDR Global Asia Champion

“One of the key lessons from this outbreak is that preparedness should not begin during a crisis. Strong collaboration between clinicians, laboratories, epidemiologists, animal health sectors, and public health authorities is essential for timely detection, contact tracing, and evidence-based decision-making. At present, available evidence suggests that the risk of this outbreak evolving into a pandemic remains low. Nevertheless, the event highlights the importance of maintaining resilient public health systems capable of responding rapidly to emerging infectious disease threats without causing unnecessary panic or misinformation.”

 

Dr. Ljubica Latinovic, Senior international consultant for capacity and knowledge management for public health emergencies
Dr. Ljubica Latinovic, Senior international consultant for capacity and knowledge management for public health emergencies

“The ongoing hantavirus outbreak serves as a strong reminder of the need to strengthen preparedness and response efforts for health emergencies involving multiple hazards, placing the core capacities of the International Health Regulations (IHR) at the forefront of countries’ future priorities. As WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has often emphasized, the next pandemic is a question of “when, not if,” and the world must be ready. Therefore, every outbreak like this should be viewed as a test not only for national health systems but also for the coordination and collaboration among government bodies at the national, regional, and global levels, as demonstrated by the current hantavirus situation. Building trusted relationships among all stakeholders involved is essential for an effective and efficient response. Sharing data, information, and findings is fundamental to understanding the pathogen and the associated risks, as well as developing joint solutions to reduce the threat. This highlights the critical importance for member states to ratify the WHO Pandemic Agreement as an international framework for preventing, preparing for, and addressing future health emergencies. Although this outbreak, according to what is known about it, does not have the potential to develop into a pandemic, it is clear that global solidarity and support remain the most effective tools against this hazard.”

Busisani Dube, Chartered Geographer and Global Health Strategist
Busisani Dube, Chartered Geographer and Global Health Strategist

“The mandate for global health architecture is absolute: data interoperability. We must dismantle bio-security theatre and enforce real-time, case-based digital tracking, deploying Health Management Information Systems (HMIS) scalable to the DHIS2 frameworks I have governed for national disease elimination programmes. While this specific outbreak acts as a clinical stress test, mitigating future shocks demands bridging the gap between geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) and sub-national surveillance compliance. Effective prevention necessitates shifting from aggregate reporting to granular, real-time tracking that synchronises clinical data with actionable environmental health audits.”

Kevin Nazar, PhD MSc. International Development Specialist
Kevin Nazar, PhD MSc. International Development Specialist

“Despite the classification of low transmission potential given by the WHO, this virus should be of concern to countries where there is no adequate epidemiological surveillance to detect and respond quickly to the first cases, and where there is no laboratory capacity to diagnose them with a high level of biosecurity. After the COVID-19 pandemic, we will always have doubts about the pandemic potential of any infectious agent and the uncertainty of not allocating enough resources to biosecurity in a globalized world.”

 

See also: How the collapse of nature turned hantavirus into a global threat

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