Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9 percent by 2035, driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices, according to a press release by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The findings come from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, released on 29 June 2026 in Paris and Rome. The report estimates that if the frequency of recent shocks continues, there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will fall below current levels. Short-term risks remain significant, with recent energy price hikes and reduced fertilizer use likely to affect production in 2027. While high-income countries can absorb such shocks, low-income countries face deteriorating food security.
The Outlook serves as a global baseline reference for medium-term prospects of agricultural and fisheries markets at national, regional, and global levels. Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13 percent over the next ten years. Growth will be driven mainly by productivity improvements and production intensification. It will be concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 6.5 percent over the decade.
If the 33 percent average surge in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 continues into the second half, global grain production would decline by 0.9 percent in 2027. The drop would reach 1.7 percent in low-income countries. Associated income losses and higher food prices would force households in lower-income countries to reduce food consumption and shift toward cheaper items. Livestock are expected to account for around 77 percent of the projected emissions increase. Synthetic fertilizers would contribute a further 23 percent through higher nitrous oxide emissions by 2035.
“Our agrifood systems are under pressure, and our farmers are on the front line of rising energy and fertiliser costs,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said.
He stressed that farmer resilience underpins food security and requires better support to weather shocks. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu added:
“To sustain productivity growth in agrifood systems, we must strengthen their resilience. Resilience is not about surviving the last shock; it is about preparing for the next one.”
He called for investment in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of critical inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a more diversified energy mix.
Global cereal production is projected to reach a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035, with yields rising 0.9 percent annually. Sub-Saharan Africa will contribute about 16 percent of additional global agricultural production in value terms by 2035, up from 11 percent in the previous decade. The Asia Pacific region is projected to account for 58 percent of additional global agricultural output, with India alone contributing 26 percent. Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase by 11 percent by 2035, with aquaculture reaching 56 percent of total output. Multilateral cooperation and rules-based international agricultural trade remain vital to strengthening global food security and stabilizing farm incomes.
