Up to 23.4 million additional children could fall into monetary poverty by the end of 2026, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and related shipping disruptions continue to have a damaging and potentially irreversible impact on children, according to a new analysis released on 16 July 2026 by United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The report warns that years of progress could be reversed, deepening inequality worldwide. It highlights how rising food and energy prices are eroding household purchasing power. Children in the poorest households are disproportionately affected. The findings signal an urgent call for coordinated policy responses.
The report, The Impact of the War in the Middle East on Children in Monetarily Poor Households, draws on data from over 167 countries. It links broader economic shocks to escalating hostilities, including disruptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The analysis focuses on how these shocks affect what families can afford to buy. It notes that only a fraction of Middle Eastern countries are included in the global totals due to conflict and data limitations. Middle Eastern countries with available data are reported within their respective continental aggregates.
The report examines two scenarios: adverse and severe. The adverse scenario reflects a moderate economic shock that could push an additional 18.3 million children into monetary poverty. The severe scenario assumes stronger, more prolonged disruptions and projects 23.4 additional children pushed into monetary poverty if the war continues. Asia and Africa account for around 80 per cent of the total increase, reflecting high baseline poverty and vulnerability to external shocks. Poverty is assessed against international lines of US$3.00 and US$4.20 per person per day.
“Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. In Somalia, fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the escalation, driving up costs of food, water, transport and humanitarian assistance. In Ethiopia, diesel prices have risen by 31 per cent, and humanitarian fuel costs have gone up by 50–70 per cent. In Nigeria, low-income households spend between 60–70 per cent of their income on food and transport. In Bangladesh, an estimated 1.2 million more people could fall into poverty.
UNICEF is calling on national governments, donor governments, and international financial institutions to protect children from the worst impacts of the crisis. Priority actions include:
- Safeguarding domestic and international funding for health, nutrition, education and child protection.
- Scaling up child-sensitive social protection systems and cash transfers.
- Ensuring uninterrupted access to affordable essential services, including minimum spending floors that rise with inflation.
- Expanding fiscal space through debt-service suspension or restructuring where needed.
- Implementing child-focused preparedness systems to respond rapidly to future shocks.
