UK strengthens defenses against severe solar storms

New forecasting tools developed through a £20 million UK research program are now protecting flights, GPS, and the electricity grid from severe space weather, according to a press release by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). Technologies produced through the five-year SWIMMR (Space Weather Innovation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk) program are already being deployed in live forecasting systems. An independent evaluation by Frazer-Nash Consultancy highlights how the initiative is reshaping the UK’s readiness for major solar events. The program was led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). It ran between 2019 and 2024.

Severe solar storms can disrupt satellites, aviation, and power networks, and are triggered by huge eruptions of matter from the Sun known as coronal mass ejections. Space weather is a top-tier national risk in the UK’s National Risk Register, placed in the same category as pandemic disease and major flooding. A report published by the National Audit Office earlier this year highlighted that a 2022 estimate put the potential economic impact of a severe space weather event at £9 billion. SWIMMR was delivered in partnership with the Met Office, the British Geological Survey (BGS), the British Antarctic Survey, and RAL Space. It was funded with £20 million from UKRI’s Strategic Priorities Fund.

When a powerful geomagnetic storm swept across Earth in May 2024, scientists at BGS monitored its effect on the electricity grid. Using a new forecasting system developed through SWIMMR, they had previously identified which substations were most at risk of elevated earth currents generated by the aurora. This was the first major test of the system, warning operators earlier of dangerous electrical imbalances. It was the first time the UK had possessed this level of operational foresight. The model identified the substations where transformer alarms subsequently triggered.

Through the program, five UK-developed forecasting models are moving into operational use at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). A new cloud-based platform has reduced the transfer time for forecasting models from several years to approximately six months. New measurement tools are already supplying live data to MOSWOC. STFC’s Professor Ian McCrea, Resilient Society Theme Lead at RAL Space and Head of the SWIMMR Programme, said:

“SWIMMR has delivered a major advance in the UK’s space-weather capability, turning cutting-edge research into improved operational forecasting tools to protect satellites, aviation and the electricity grid.”

He added that the initiative places the UK among leading nations developing operational space-weather forecasting.

SWIMMR comprised 11 connected projects spanning universities, national laboratories, and industry partners. The program brought together more than 70 organizations and established 29 domestic and 33 international partnerships, while sustaining around 40 specialist roles. It also generated approximately 60 pence of additional investment for every £1 of public funding. Full integration into operational services is expected by the end of 2026. The National Electricity System Operator has since commissioned research with SWIMMR partners and the Met Office to better understand how extreme space weather could affect future electricity grid resilience.