El Niño could displace up to three million people in East Africa by year end

A powerful El Niño weather event is expected to intensify annual flooding during the rainy season in East Africa beginning in October and could force up to three million people to flee by the end of the year in the worst-case scenario, according to a press release issued on 25 August 2026 by the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) in Nairobi. The projections cover Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda, with Somalia and Kenya expected to account for the largest share of likely displacements. In the most severe scenario, Somalia would represent 60 percent of displacements and Kenya 33 percent. The projected figures could surpass the 2023 floods, which displaced over two million people across the region. The findings appear in a new DRC report titled El Niño Through a Displacement Lens: Mobility Outlook in East Africa.

The report outlines three scenarios, ranging from the least to the most severe, based on a model that analyzes forecast rainfall alongside physical flood exposure, seasonal patterns, river-system information, and past displacement data. Flood-related displacement projections range from 750,000 in the less severe scenario to three million in the most severe. According to scientists, above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean point to a record Super El Niño continuing into 2027, bringing floods, droughts, and frequent storms. For poorer nations, this will translate into crop failures, soaring food prices, and acute hunger. Refugees and internally displaced families, who already have the fewest resources to withstand climate shocks, face the greatest risk.

DRC states that traditional humanitarian funding predominantly arrives long after floodwaters peak and destruction has already taken hold. As an operational international NGO supporting displaced people, DRC integrates El Niño risk assessments with protection, water, sanitation, shelter, and conflict-sensitivity analysis. The organization is combining multi-hazard modeling with its frontline reach to deliver early warning alerts, cash, water infrastructure protection, and pre-positioned shelter kits. Scenarios will be updated as new data and forecasts become available. The approach aims to turn forecasts into timely action for vulnerable communities.

“In Beledweyne, I met families still rebuilding after the devastating 2023 El Niño floods. Now they are watching the river rise again, wondering whether they will be forced to flee for a second time. This is the human cost of repeated climate shocks: people are not simply losing homes and livelihoods; they are being forced to rebuild their lives again and again. We know the risk is coming. The choice is whether we act before the river breaks its banks, or respond only after people have lost everything once more,” said James Curtis, DRC Executive Director East Africa and Great Lakes, following a recent visit to Beledweyne, Somalia.

Beyond flooding, DRC has activated its drought anticipatory action system in alignment with Ethiopia’s National Drought Anticipatory Action Framework in the Afar region, supporting 700 households, or approximately 4,400 people, with livestock support, animal health services, water and sanitation assistance, and dignity kits. In the Karamoja cluster in Kenya and Uganda, DRC will provide cash assistance to 1,228 households, or approximately 7,378 individuals, and implement cross-border peacebuilding activities reaching 7,030 people. DRC is calling on donors and regional governments to integrate refugees, IDPs, and host communities into national disaster plans and early-warning systems. Globally, DRC needs $5 million to protect 240,000 people ahead of peak El Niño shocks, and a further $10 million for emergency response. The organization emphasizes the need to protect lives, livelihoods, and public systems today to prevent recurring crises tomorrow.