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Temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C global warming goal set in Paris is widely considered inevitable, and the challenge now is to keep that overshoot as small and short as possible, according to the United Nations (UN) News. Cutting emissions faster, unlocking finance and strengthening international cooperation have become central to the next phase of climate action. Just over a decade ago, the world was heading towards more than 4°C of warming above pre-industrial levels. Action since the Paris Agreement has lowered that trajectory to 2.3°C if current national commitments are fully delivered. The United Nations continues to push for stronger national plans, a faster transition to renewable energy and greater attention to adaptation, climate justice and developing-country financing.
The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, with heat, drought, floods, storms and wildfires taking a growing toll on lives, economies and development. The 1.5°C limit refers to the average rise in global temperature above pre-industrial levels over decades, not a single hot year. An overshoot means temperatures rise above that threshold, reach a peak and, if emissions are cut deeply, eventually begin to fall. Even if current national climate plans and additional net-zero pledges are fully implemented, warming could still peak at around 1.8°C, according to a recent UN Environment Programme report. That decline is not guaranteed and depends on choices governments make now.
Countries responsible for nearly 90 percent of global emissions have submitted updated national climate plans, known as NDCs. Even if fully implemented, they are expected to reduce emissions by only around 10 percent by 2035. To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, emissions would need to fall by roughly 60 percent over the same period. Closing that gap means faster cuts, particularly of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants, while halting deforestation and accelerating the shift from fossil fuels to renewables. Three out of four people live in countries that import more fossil fuels than they export.
Developing countries often face much higher borrowing costs for renewable energy projects, making investment in clean power, grids and storage harder even where the potential is enormous. The UN has repeatedly called for cheaper finance, reforms to multilateral development banks and greater private investment in developing countries. Adaptation is equally critical, as recent floods and landslides in Nepal and China have shown how exposed communities are to extreme weather. A strong El Niño expected to persist into early 2027 could add to risks in the Greater Horn of Africa and parts of Latin America and the Caribbean. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “every fraction of a degree will cost lives, destroy livelihoods, deepen inequality, and push ecosystems closer to irreversible damage.”
These priorities are at the center of the Secretary-General’s Climate Summit on 23 September at UN Headquarters. Its objectives can be summed up in three phrases: accelerate the transition, unlock finance and protect people. The meeting will bring together governments, development banks, business, finance and civil society to focus on practical barriers to implementation. Solutions Dialogues will take place during the week, focusing on energy, oceans, adaptation, methane, finance, information integrity and green industrialization. The focus is on turning existing commitments into action and on what can be done together to accelerate delivery.