Homicides fall as organized crime expands into new markets | Report

Homicide rates are declining across much of the world, yet organized crime is expanding in many regions as criminal networks diversify into trafficking, migrant smuggling, and the exploitation of natural resources, according to a press release by the United Nations (UN). The findings come from a new report by the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), titled Crime and Justice in a Changing World, presented on Wednesday at the 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi. The study was launched on 30 September 2026. It draws on nine regional studies to map shifting patterns of crime and justice. Its central thesis is that falling homicides and rising organized crime are not contradictory but reflect a shift in how criminal profit is generated.

The report finds that homicides fell from 5.9 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 5.2 in 2023. Under current trends, homicide rates are projected to decrease by 25 percent between 2015 and 2030. However, Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa together account for roughly two thirds of all homicide victims worldwide. In those regions, killings are frequently driven by organized crime, gangs, and transnational criminal groups. The report says criminal profit is shifting away from localized predation toward transnational markets, digital victimization, and the exploitation of licit trade and supply chains.

Criminal networks are increasingly intertwined with legitimate economies, the report finds. In Latin America, cartels that began in drug trafficking have expanded into agriculture, mining, fishing, and wildlife. Europol has assessed that nearly one fifth of criminal networks in Europe operate across multiple criminal markets. In parts of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, criminal groups operating from special economic zones traffic thousands of people and run cyberfraud schemes, including romance-investment fraud and crypto scams. In Cambodia, estimates of illicit proceeds from cybercrime and illegal gambling range from $12.5 billion to $19 billion a year, as much as 60 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Technology has lowered the barriers to entry, with generative AI and “cybercrime-as-a-service” models meaning criminal capability no longer necessarily depends on organizational sophistication. A 2025 survey of 42 countries cited in the report found that 57 percent of adults worldwide had experienced a scam and 23 percent had lost money in the previous 12 months. Justice systems are responding under considerable strain, with many increasingly shaped by concerns around security and State control rather than the rule of law and human rights. The report points to militarized policing, more punitive approaches to prisons, and the lowering of the minimum age of criminal responsibility in parts of Oceania, East Asia, and Latin America. States are also adopting surveillance and AI technologies faster than the rules needed to govern them.

The report highlights successes as well, noting that Brazilian megacity São Paulo’s sustained decline in homicides since the early 2000s has been linked to data-driven policing, firearms restrictions, and municipal prevention measures. The study suggests five areas for further research, engagement, and transregional coordination. These include how emerging criminal models spread between regions and when different kinds of crime overlap and feed each other. It also calls for examining long-term effects on crime levels and trust in institutions, the effects of transactional cooperation versus lasting partnerships, and how a multipolar world changes the way institutions work. The findings underscore the evolving nature of crime and the need for adaptive responses.