Adaptation lags as world heads for 1.5°C overshoot, UNEP warns

With global warming set to exceed 1.5°C, adaptation finance remains far below what developing countries need, implementation faces institutional barriers, and climate-related losses and damages continue to mount, according to a press release issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on 4 November 2026 from Nairobi. The 2026 Adaptation Gap Report: Ready? Not finds that expanded, effective and well-financed adaptation will be crucial to reduce risks and strengthen resilience. International public adaptation finance flows from developed to developing countries remain far below estimated needs of US$305 billion annually by 2035. Even if the COP30 aspiration to triple such flows by 2035 is achieved, only 20-29 per cent of needs would be covered. The report signals that nations are not prepared for intensifying climate impacts.

International public adaptation finance flows reached US$28.2-31.7 billion in 2024, a US$1 billion increase over the previous year. Flows to least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS) rose in real terms between 2019 and 2024 but have declined from a 2022 peak. The report bases its US$305 billion central estimate on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and model-based estimates. This figure largely excludes the private sector’s own needs, which could almost double it. Tripling flows to LDCs and SIDS could meet 49-83 per cent of their needs.

At COP30, the Global Mutirão decision called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035, bringing international flows to US$85-120 billion per year depending on the baseline. When adjusted for inflation, the tripling would meet just 20-29 per cent of adaptation finance needs in 2035. The Glasgow Climate Pact goal to double finance from 2019 levels to US$40 billion by 2025 could still be met, with Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) likely to have increased financing significantly in 2025. Contributions through MDBs and direct South-South cooperation rose from US$3.8 billion in 2019 to US$9.6 billion in 2024. Private flows may only reduce the funding gap of more public-oriented adaptation actions by 15-20 per cent.

“The world is not ready to adapt to current climactic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5°C will bring,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. She urged nations at climate COP31 in Türkiye and beyond to intensify efforts to achieve the COP30 Global Mutirão aspiration of tripling adaptation finance by 2035. Andersen added that countries will need to go even higher to save lives, avoid losses and damages and protect economies. Beyond finance, governments are strengthening institutional factors by adopting climate change framework laws, creating platforms for policy learning, and improving coordination across sectors. Dedicated mechanisms to mobilize and manage climate finance are also being established.

Losses and damages are growing in developing countries, but responses and finance remain insufficient. The first round of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage generated requests worth US$2.8 billion, outstripping the initial funding envelope of US$342 million. Complex procedures and limited capacity make support difficult to access, while the global Loss and Damage finance gap is not yet known. The report calls for stronger assessment capacity, adequate and predictable financial and technical support, and simpler access procedures. It also stresses meaningful participation by affected communities in shaping responses to losses and damages.