Early warnings save lives globally, yet millions remain unprotected, UN warns at COP31

Early warning systems are saving lives around the world, but for millions the alert never arrives, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on 11 November 2026, urging the world to protect every person on Earth by the end of 2027, according to United Nations (UN). He addressed a high-level event on the Early Warnings for All initiative at the COP31 climate conference, which runs until 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye. “No one should lose their life simply because a warning came too late – or never came at all,” he told participants. A new joint report from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) underpinned his appeal. Despite significant progress, major gaps remain in the most vulnerable countries as a powerful El Niño raises the stakes.

The report, Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2026, finds that 136 countries – 70 per cent of the total – now report having multi-hazard early warning systems, 17 more than in March 2025. Countries with substantial to comprehensive systems record disaster-related mortality 6.1 times lower than those with limited to moderate ones. They also report 3.2 times fewer people affected. Around one in three countries still has no early warning system. The widest gaps are in least developed countries, small island developing States, and countries affected by conflict.

The report highlights several recent cases where warnings worked. When a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in July 2025, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued its first threat messages within 10 minutes. Japan evacuated approximately 1.9 million people, while in Ecuador’s Galápagos islands more than 2,300 people were moved out of high-risk areas hours before waves of about 1.3 metres reached the shore. In Madagascar, an early action plan developed by the Malagasy Red Cross was partially activated before Tropical Cyclone Gezani made landfall in February, with some 600 door-to-door visits reaching 80,000 to 100,000 people. In Rwanda’s Karongi district, a tea farmer received warnings through women’s cooperatives, SMS, local radio, and loudspeakers 48 hours before heavy rain.

Mr. Guterres noted that some European countries have more weather stations that meet global standards than the entire continent of Africa. “We cannot warn people about what we cannot see,” he said. WMO chief Celeste Saulo warned that the current El Niño “could be literally off our monitoring charts.” She added that while El Niño cannot be stopped, many of its worst human consequences can be prevented. Kamal Kishore, head of UNDRR, said countries have made significant progress but too many people remain unprotected.

Urging countries to “accelerate and build systems that last,” Mr. Guterres set out three priorities: making early warnings a permanent public service; closing financing and capacity gaps; and moving from fragmented projects to coordinated, long-term support for country-led plans. Since 2022, some $2 billion has been mobilised and around 160 countries are receiving support. Finance, he said, must cover the entire warning chain, “from weather forecasting to communication tools to volunteers knocking on doors.” In 2025, 146 anticipatory action activations in 54 countries reached 9.6 million people, the report found. “Together, let us make sure that every warning arrives in time,” the Secretary-General concluded.