Looking into the future of water resources and the impact of climate change

How will climate change influence water supplies a hundred years from now? To answer questions like this, water scientists use scientific models. Among these is the IAEA’s isotope-enabled water balance model, which can help experts accurately and reliably predict the impact of climate change on water resources far into the future. The information they collect can support decision-makers in developing sustainable water use policies for generations to come.

This is one of the topics that water experts will discuss during the IAEA’s International Symposium on Isotope Hydrology, taking place on from 20 to 24 May in Vienna, Austria.

Models draw on existing data and are used to study and understand ideas, objects and processes that are difficult to observe directly. This includes making predictions, such as forecasting next week’s weather conditions or estimating unemployment rates over the next five years. While models present a more general and simplified version of the real world, each aspect of a model is calibrated to provide an accurate reflection of how the real world works.

Unlike many traditional water balance models, the IAEA’s model uses isotopes to calibrate the model and verify its accuracy because isotopes are distinct and consistent in their behaviour. With a well-calibrated and verified water balance model, scientists can get an accurate estimate of what to expect in the future, such as the impact of climate change on water resources a hundred years or more from now.

For any country and climate, precision in these long-term water studies is important because an over or underestimation of future water supplies can have detrimental effects, said Dessie Nedaw Habtemariam, Associate Professor at Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia.

Scientists from several countries are working with the IAEA to receive training and support in using the IAEA’s isotope-enabled water balance model and other models for improving water resource management. In Ethiopia, for example, a three-year technical cooperation project is being launched to study the upper Awash Basin — a large groundwater reservoir supplying fresh water to more than 2.6 million people. Other countries, like Canada, are setting up or have set up isotope sampling networks to improve accuracy when using models such as the IAEA’s.

Original source: IAEA
Published on 09 May 2019