Experts’ Opinions| World Population Ageing: consequences and solutions

ByCatalina Russu

Experts’ Opinions| World Population Ageing: consequences and solutions

Falling fertility rates and increased life expectancy due to improvements in health care, particularly in Asia, have led to a rapidly ageing population. According to the United Nations, by 2050, one in five people in poor nations will be over 60 years old. Consultants who focus on demography now reflect upon how ageing will affect the cost of health and social care for developing countries and also offer some solutions as to how to cope with the ageing population of the future.

What are the main reasons for the world population ageing? 

Temesgen Kassa,  expert in Demography /Population studies

“Demographically, population ageing is the result of a decline in both fertility and mortality, a process initially experienced by developed countries alongside their achievements in the area of development. Unlike developed nations, in developing population ageing is not a gradual process and is taking place rapidly because of medical interventions. For instance, by 2025 the rate of increase in the number of older people in developing countries is expected to be seven to eight times higher than the current rate. Similarly, studies indicate that in Africa, by 2050, young age dependency will decrease by 57% while old-age dependency is expected to increase by 93%. This demographic shift is followed by a transition in the burden of illness from communicable to chronic disease. Technological breakthroughs, especially in the field of medicine, that have taken place in the developed world have greatly contributed to this process. Conversely, in developing countries, medical interventions mainly account for the process. This has enabled countries to quickly eliminate many diseases that previously led to people’s premature death. However, these achievements in developing countries are accompanied by persistent poverty, poor supply of health care services and many years of life lost due to premature death and lives lived with disability.” 

 

How will ageing affect health care and social costs for developing countries? 

Farid Flici, expert on actuarial demography

“In most developing countries, social security coverage is still weak; the financial burden on non-contributory schemes is significant but still not sufficient to alleviate poverty among the elderly who usually receive some social benefits and free healthcare assistance which fail to cover basic needs in most cases. Population ageing results in an increasing ratio of the population of the elderly against the population at working age. This ratio is directly tied to the ratio of outgoings income to incomes within the social protection system. During working age, people pay contributions, taxes, and participate in economic growth while, beyond a certain age, they lose their “earning power” and will require a minimum income to cover their basic needs. The situation becomes more complicated with longevity improvement, especially when not accompanied by an improvement in healthy life expectancy. This makes the duration of retirement relatively longer compared to the duration of working life and thus the life span spent with a chronic disease (or a disability) longer. This increases health care expenses. Population ageing makes it necessary to adapt health infrastructures to the changing structure of the population. Health care needs for the elderly differ significantly from those of younger people, either in the type or in the amount. Besides, the growing population will certainly increase the demand for public health services. Health infrastructures need to be adapted accordingly, and this requires some investments.”

 

What are some solutions to cope with an ageing population in developing countries? 

Farid Flici, expert on actuarial demography

“What remains certain is that ageing, population growth, longevity, and unhealthy longevity will increase social and healthcare expenses. It remains necessary to predict the future trends of these demographic variables and to estimate their financial impact on social protection and health care systems and on their future sustainability. Then, based on this, questions such as how to master the growing pace of social costs, how to find complementary financial resources and (/or) how to improve the efficiency of social and healthcare programs targeting the elderly, need to be discussed and investigated. For instance, the main solution, which remains a challenge, consists of expanding social security coverage to the whole population. This may help increase the resources within the contributory system. Secondly, promoting economic growth may allow improvement in taxation resources (non-contributory scheme). Thirdly, social subsidies need to be more beneficial to the vulnerable population. Fourthly, it remains important to create a favourable atmosphere in which to develop a private healthcare system, especially for high-earning people, to reduce the burden on the public system. Fifthly, governments may implement preventive strategies to reduce chronic disease prevalence among the elderly by handling risk factors such as smoking, alcohol, obesity, unhealthy nutrition, lack of physical activity, etc.”

 

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