During the second quarter of 2020, manufacturing production fell sharply in most countries around the world, with the notable exception of China where output had already returned to moderate growth.
On current estimates, UNIDO expects a decline in global manufacturing value-added of 8.4 percent for the year as a whole, which would make 2020 the worst year on official records for the sector.
In the second quarter of 2020 (April-June), global manufacturing output fell by 11.2 percent compared with the same quarter in the previous year, according to official figures from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). The dramatic drop reflects the economic impact of measures imposed to halt the spread of COVID-19, which overshadowed all other negative influences on the sector, including higher trade barriers and the impact of Brexit.
UNIDO anticipates ongoing disruptions to manufacturing over the coming months as the world continues to grapple with the impacts of the pandemic.
“Based on this scenario, and on developments in manufacturing linked to other economic variables, UNIDO is forecasting a fall in global manufacturing value added of 8.4 percent in 2020, which would mark the biggest collapse in output since official records began,” UNIDO Chief Statistician Fernando Cantu said.
Some countries are likely to be harder hit than others, with China expected to record a more modest drop of 1.6 percent compared with the United States and Europe’s industrialized economies where value-added in 2020 is forecast to plummet by 15 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively.
Figures for the second quarter show a wide divergence between China and the rest of the world, as well as between and within developing and industrialized economies. China was one of the first countries to impose a lockdown and most of the impact was felt during the first three months of the year. By the second quarter, China’s manufacturing output had already returned to growth, increasing by 2.8 percent year-on-year, led by industries such as computer electronics (11.2 percent), electrical equipment (6.8 percent), and machinery (6.3 percent).
On the other hand, the data for developing and emerging industrial economies (excluding China) show a markedly gloomier picture, with second-quarter output plunging by 22 percent on the year following a 2.3 percent drop in the first quarter.
The hardest-hit geographical region was Latin America, where manufacturing output fell by 24.2 percent year-on-year, followed by Asia and the Pacific, which saw a 23.7 percent drop.
Given the characteristics of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, there were substantial differences in manufacturing output per sector in recent months. For example, production of essential goods and supplies, such as food and pharmaceutical products, was less affected than other industries. Production of basic pharmaceuticals in all country groups in the second quarter of 2020 showed moderate growth, while the production of capital and durable goods, such as machinery and motor vehicles, dropped sharply over the same period due to shrinking demand.
Read the report: World Manufacturing Production.
Original source: UNIDO
