Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa: Strategies for Workforce Development

1. Introduction

Africa’s transition to a green economy presents a major opportunity to drive sustainable economic growth, combat climate change, and create millions of jobs across diverse sectors. By leveraging its vast natural resources, growing workforce, and emerging green industries, Africa is well-positioned to develop a robust green labour market that supports both economic and environmental resilience.

While “Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa” (2024) and “Assessment of Women Livelihoods within the ClimateSmart Sector” (2025) provided a macro-level estimate of green job and livelihood growth across key sectors, and particularly for women, there remains a critical gap in understanding the specific job roles, workforce supply, and skills requirements needed to meet this demand. Furthermore, although women make up nearly half of Africa’s workforce, they are underrepresented in green industries—missing out on the economic benefits of this transition. 

This study builds upon the “Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa” and “Assessment of Women Livelihoods within the Climate-Smart Sector” reports by:

1. Enhancing the granularity of job forecasts—identifying specific job roles within priority sectors, such as solar installation, e-mobility, regenerative agriculture, and circular economy industries.

2. Analysing workforce supply and demand mismatches—examining whether current training programs are equipping workers with the necessary skills.

3. Exploring opportunities for all Africans, with a focus on women—outlining pathways for greater inclusion, particularly in technical and leadership roles.

4. Identify what ‘inflection points’ we must watch for to keep abreast of whether we are on or off track to meet project job forecasts.

5. Providing action-oriented recommendations—offering sector-specific insights tailored for policymakers, funders, businesses, and workforce development institutions.

By addressing these knowledge gaps, this research will offer a practical roadmap for building a skilled, inclusive green workforce that can drive Africa’s economic transformation .

Project goals

This contract aims to quantify and analyze the workforce needed to support Africa’s green transition, answering key labour market questions that remain unaddressed in previous studies, especially for those populations from low-income backgrounds who are under-employed or unemployed. While our previous “Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa” (2024) and “Assessment of Women Livelihoods within the Climate-Smart Sector” (2025) projected broad job and livelihood growth across major sectors, it did not detail the specific roles, skills, and labour market dynamics required to fill these jobs, nor the job opportunities for those from low-income backgrounds—this study will provide that missing detail.

Key research questions:

1. Role forecasting & employment volumes

o What are the most in-demand green roles, based on our initial forecasting of jobs research, by 2030 and 2050?

o How many workers will be needed across priority value chains (e.g., renewable energy, emobility, regenerative agriculture, circular economy)?

o What will be the split between formal and informal jobs - which types/scale of organizations (corporates, SMEs, gig work etc) will create employment?

o What income ranges across and value chains can be expected?

2. Workforce supply & skills gaps

o What is the current pipeline of skilled workers for these jobs?

o Where are the biggest skills mismatches between training programs and industry needs?

o How can vocational and higher education institutions better align with labor market demand?

3. Opportunities for women in Green Jobs

o What specific green job roles and value chains present high-growth opportunities for women?

o What successful programs and policies have enabled women’s participation in these sectors?

o How can training, mentorship, and financing mechanisms increase women’s access to greencareers?

4. Actionable strategies for policymakers & stakeholders

o What policy interventions can accelerate green job creation and workforce development?

o How can public and private actors bridge the labour market gap to ensure Africa has a skilled, jobready workforce for the green economy?

o What financing and investment strategies are needed to scale training and skilling, job creation and income increase efforts across the continent? How much investment is required by different stakeholders to achieve this goal?

o What key inflection points and/or triggers do we need to watch for to be able to evaluate whether we are on or off track to create projected jobs?

By providing granular job forecasts, workforce analysis, and practical recommendations, this study will equip policymakers, employers, and training institutions with the tools needed to prepare Africans—especially women—for the future of work in a sustainable, inclusive economy .

By providing granular job forecasts, workforce analysis, and practical recommendations, this study will equip policymakers, employers, and training institutions with the tools needed to prepare Africans—especially women—for the future of work in a sustainable, inclusive economy.

2.2. FSD Africa

FSD Africa is incorporated as a non-profit company limited by guarantee in Kenya. It is funded by UK aid from the UK government. It provides tools and resources to drive large-scale change in financial markets and support sustainable economic development. It addresses financial market failures to bring about growth and opportunity. Their business is to help create a sustainable future for Africa’s people and its natural environment. FSD Africa's programming is designed to address systemic challenges within Africa’s financial markets, with the aim of sparking large-scale and long-term change. Interventions are designed from the ground up, to ensure that Africa’s financial markets better serve those most in need – today, and long after our programmes end. A team of 35 financial sector experts works to strengthen, expand and deepen Africa’s financial sector.

FSD Africa partners with all the critical branches of Africa’s financial markets, to develop effective financial sector development programs. Their programs are designed to address the most pressing challenges facing Africa’s financial sector, from long-term finance to climate change to affordable housing.

2.3. Shell Foundation

Shell Foundation is an endowed UK registered charity that catalyzes clean energy innovation and unlocks inclusive investments in Africa and India, empowering millions of underserved customers – of which half are women – to increase incomes while lowering emissions.

To achieve its charitable mission, Shell Foundation, supports early-stage innovation and then partners with organizations to scale solutions that increase incomes for three customer groups: smallholder farmers, microentrepreneurs and urban transporters.

2.4. Shortlist

Shortlist is one of Africa’s leading talent advisory firms. Through Shortlist Search and Shortlist Futures, Shortlist has worked with hundreds of climate-related employers on the continent. In addition, Shortlist has designed and executed large-scale workforce development programs, co-created with funders like UK’s DFID/FCDO, the Netherlands’ Challenge Fund for Youth Employment, Mastercard Foundation, and GEAPP, to build a workforce for the clean energy sector and provide career on-ramps to 8,000+ young people across 26 African countries (with 50% of placements being women).

3. Scope of work

GivEn the partners desire to share this data as a public good, several public outputs will be necessary to share and disseminate findings with the sector and policy makers. These outputs will likely be shared in various formats, including a publicly accessible report and/or website, and include an in-market dissemination and knowledge sharing strategy.

Desired outputs include:

o Sectoral skills mapping: Identifying critical green job roles and the skills needed for success.

o Employer demand forecasting: Analyzing talent needs across green sectors to inform workforce Development.

o Gender inclusion research: Investigating barriers and solutions for increasing women’s representation in green jobs.

o SME job creation models: Assessing how small businesses can scale employment in high-growth Industries like solar, e-mobility, and waste management.

o Innovative hiring strategies: Exploring new models such as fractional leadership, apprenticeships, and digital job-matching to expand workforce participation.

Deliverables

The consulting firm will be responsible for producing the following outputs:

o Inception Report: Outlining research methodology, data sources, and project plan.

o Sector stakeholder engagement / consortium strategy: Develop an engagement and strategy plan forstakeholders which we can use even beyond this report.

o Monthly Progress Reports: Updates on research findings, challenges, and next steps.

o Green Jobs Sector Report: A comprehensive analysis of employment trends, skills gaps, an workforce challenges in Africa’s green economy 

o Gender Inclusion Report: Focused research on women’s participation and career advancement in green sectors.

o Green SME Employment Playbook: Practical recommendations for scaling job creation in small and growing businesses.

o Public Summary Report: A non-technical version of the findings for policymakers, investors, and training institutions.

o Raw Data File: To enable data visualization and open access for further sectoral research.

o Dissemination & Stakeholder Engagement Strategy: Plan for sharing insights with government, industry, and funders.

The partners believe that the research methodology to allow for this work to be done in a comprehensive and expedient manner, will deploy a mix of top-down and bottom-up approaches. To ensure that the methodology

is sound and reflective of the broader public who will consume this data, the partners the selected contractor should engage the expected users of this data (the sector, governments, funders, etc.) as a consultative step before embarking on the research, and on a frequent basis during the research, to ensure that the outputs are fit for their purpose(s). Through the research process, regular updates would also be shared with stakeholders in the form of email communications and/or wider stakeholder group calls to share insights and take on feedback. The work will likely be concluded with a training workshop where the stakeholders interact with and learn in-depth about the model developed.

4. Timelines

The project shall be implemented under a consultancy contract not more than 6 months with anticipated contract start date of July 2025. The consulting firm shall provide periodic update reports on the progress of implementation of the project as per the deliverables.

5. Invitation to Tender FSD Africa, Shell Foundation and Shortlist are inviting proposals from a suitably qualified consulting firm. Your proposal should contain:

a. A description of the Consulting firm’s understanding of the objective of the assignment as outlined in these terms of reference and their role in fulfilling this objective.

b. A description of the Consulting firm’s proposed approach to undertaking the work.

c. A profile of the team leader and other key team members that will undertake the work, including explanation of their specific roles and responsibilities in relation to the assignment and their relevant experience designing for inclusion. This description should be supported by tailored CVs (in an annex, no more than 3 pages per CV).

d. A short summary of relevant experience (tailored to the assignment) and referrals for similar work done in the last three years.

e. A detailed timeline, including submission of key deliverables.

f. An itemized activity-based budget for both professional fees and reimbursable expenses. The budget should include all applicable taxes.

Submitted proposals should not exceed 10 pages (excluding annexures). This should be sent to FSD Africa by email bids@fsdafrica.org by noon (EAT) on 17th June 2025 under a subject line reading ‘Invitation to tender: Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa: Strategies for Workforce Development’. Applications received after the deadline will not be considered.

6. Basis of award A contract will be awarded to the most economically advantageous tender based on the following criteria:

Assessment Criteria

7. Contact

Questions or comments in respect of these terms of reference should be directed by email to: bids@fsdafrica.org on or before 12 noon (EAT) 25th June 2025.

8. Applicable Taxes

As per Kenya’s tax law, FSD Africa will pay the Consulting firm after withholding the appropriate taxes at the applicable rate between Kenya and the Consulting firm’s country of tax residence, considering any tax

treaties in force. It is the responsibility of the Consulting firm to keep themselves apprised of these applicable taxes. The table below however provides guidance on the applicable rates as per tax regimes.