A newly published paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that AI is expected to impact the world of work and bring significant changes to the workplace, creating new jobs but at the same time replacing others. It is therefore time to develop and adopt targeted policies to ensure everyone harnesses the benefits that AI brings, the IMF suggests.
The paper produced by the IMF found that around 40% of jobs will soon be impacted by AI technologies. According to the source, high-income countries are expected to feel the impact more strongly than other countries as AI technologies are anticipated to affect highly-skilled workers more than others. In high-income countries, 60% of jobs are expected to be impacted by the technologies and, while 50% percent of these jobs are predicted to benefit from AI, the other half will be partially or, in rare cases, fully replaced by it. It is therefore expected that labor demand in some situations may fall and wages may also decrease.
See also: Technology’s impact on employment: benefits and drawbacks
In contrast, in developing and low-income countries, only 40% and 26% respectively will be exposed to the impact of AI. This means countries in these categories are expected to experience less immediate impact from the technologies. However, on the other hand, these countries are also expected to benefit less from AI as they lack the infrastructure or skilled workforce to benefit from the advantages it can offer. This will lead to the risk of AI technologies widening the inequality among countries.
AI to deepen inequality
In a recent blog post, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva wrote:
“In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions.”
In certain countries, the tendency is the same. For instance, in the UK and US labor markets, around 70% and 60% of workers are expected to be highly impacted by AI technologies with workers in high- and low-skilled positions being equally impacted. In contrast, in India, only 26% of workers are likely to be highly exposed to the impacts of AI.
Fig.1. Employment shares by AI exposure and complementarity: Country groups and selected individual countries
Source: IMF
The impact of AI technologies on different groups of people is not expected to be homogeneous. For instance, when considering occupational groups, the data shows that in the UK, a large percentage of professional and managerial positions will be exposed to a high level of AI exposure with high complementarity. Clerical support workers and technicians will also have high exposure but low complementarity. In India, low-skilled and skilled agricultural workers as well as craftspeople fall into the low-exposure category. Brazil is an intermediate case.
See also: 5 jobs that Artificial Intelligence could soon replace
Fig.2. Employment share by exposure and complementarity (selected countries)
Source: IMF
Women likely to be more affected than men
Looking at the demographic characteristics of workers in all the countries analyzed, women are expected to have higher exposure to the impact of AI. Since the trend is very similar in both high-income and low-income countries, it is possible to conclude that although women will be affected by these technologies more than men, they will also benefit more from it. In the case of education, higher education levels are related to employment in high-exposure occupations. This once again supports the idea that AI technologies will impact highly-skilled workers more than others.
To conclude, a country can benefit from AI only if its workers are ready and able to adapt to these technologies. From this point of view, advanced and some developing countries are well-positioned as there is a high level of preparedness among their workers. In contrast, some developing countries and low-income countries may find themselves in a difficult situation because they lack adequate infrastructure, and the labor force lacks sufficient skills to benefit from the potential that AI brings. It is therefore crucial to target the equitable and ethical integration of AI technologies, minimizing the risks that employees may encounter. To ensure AI will not further widen the gap between advanced, developing, and low-income nations, countries need to adopt harmonized global principles and local policies.
See also: AI will not replace you, but someone who uses it might | Opinion
