The energy crisis around the world is creating space for new opportunities and collaborations. One strong example is the Somalia-Turkey deal, proving how development partnerships are evolving beyond traditional humanitarian aid. In recent years, Türkiye’s presence in Somalia has deepened significantly, especially in terms of security, infrastructure and institutional capacity building. The multi-layered cooperation model established after 2011 has served as a foundation for a new partnership in the energy sector, which gained more contour in the last two months. The latest agreements related to offshore oil and gas exploration in Somalia mark a new phase in this relationship, blending infrastructure investments, security frameworks, and energy diplomacy into a single, integrated state-building approach. We have asked several experts about the Somalia–Türkiye cooperation in the energy sector, in the context of future development partnerships. Consider their opinions below.
Key Takeaways:
- The Somalia-Türkiye partnership illustrates a profound paradigm shift from traditional, dependency-linked humanitarian aid toward strategic, transactional development.
- According to experts, the advantages include increased investment flows, technology transfer, capacity building and greater ownership by partner countries.
- However, challenges remain, including governance risk, debt sustainability concerns, and the possibility that commercial interest may outweigh development objectives.
- Natural resources partnerships, including offshore oil and gas exploration, can contribute to long-term development and stability if supported by strong institutions, transport revenue management, environmental safeguards, and inclusive economic policies.
- The growing engagement of non-traditional actors such as Turkey is reshaping the global development landscape by offering alternative sources of finance, expertise, and political partnership.
DevelopmentAid: What does the growing energy cooperation between Somalia and Türkiye reveal about the changing nature of international development partnerships? What are some pros and cons?
“The Somalia-Türkiye cooperation illustrates a multidimensional model that transcends traditional aid logic. The relationship began during the 2011 famine, when Türkiye’s then-Prime Minister Erdogan visited Mogadishu (capital of Somalia), becoming the first non-African high-level leader to visit Somalia in two decades, laying the groundwork for a multi-billion-dollar military, economic, and cultural partnership. The data reflects a remarkable transformation: Turkish exports to Somalia grew from US$3.5 million to US$273 million in just ten years, between 2011 and 2021. By 2024, bilateral trade reached US$384 million, with Turkey remaining Somalia’s leading foreign investor. Additionally, between 2015 and 2020, Somalia was the largest recipient of Turkish aid in Africa, absorbing 54.9% of the total development assistance provided by Türkiye on the continent. This relationship reveals an alliance built on mutual interests rather than imposed political conditionalities. Its advantages include the diversification of international partners and a form of cooperation perceived as more respectful of sovereignty. However, the opacity of some agreements raises concerns: the terms of the hydrocarbon agreement grant Türkiye sweeping operational and financial privileges, and a fisheries agreement signed in December 2025 grants extraordinary control to a Turkish military-linked entity, suggesting that structural dependency may simply be shifting from one source to another.”
“The Somalia-Türkiye partnership illustrates a profound paradigm shift from traditional, dependency-linked humanitarian aid toward strategic, transactional development. Pros and Cons: The primary advantage lies in its agility and alignment with immediate national infrastructure needs without the rigid conditionality often imposed by Western donors. However, the concentration of critical economic sectors in the hands of a single external actor introduces significant geopolitical and sovereign risks.”
“The growing energy cooperation between Somalia and Türkiye reflects a larger shift in international development corporations from aid-based relationships toward investments and opportunity-driven cooperation. Unlike traditional donor-recipient models, these collaborations often combine infrastructure, security, trade and development resources. The advantages include increased investment flows, technology transfer, capacity building and greater ownership by partner countries. However, challenges remain, including governance risk, debt sustainability concerns, and the possibility that commercial interest may outweigh development objectives.”
DevelopmentAid: Can natural resource partnerships, such as offshore oil and gas exploration, realistically contribute to long-term development and stability in countries like Somalia? Please explain.
“Offshore energy exploration represents a potentially transformative opportunity, yet Somalia faces extremely vulnerable conditions. With a per capita income of US$592, Somalia ranks among the five poorest countries in the world; 54% of its population lives below the national poverty line, compared to 28% for the sub-Saharan African average. Average life expectancy stands at just 55 years, and maternal mortality reaches 621 per 100,000 births. Furthermore, Somalia ranked first on the 2024 Fragile States Index, with a score of 111.3 out of 120. In this context, natural resources could prove transformative: Somali territory is estimated to hold 6 billion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves and up to 30 billion barrels of offshore hydrocarbon potential. Concrete progress is already underway: the Oruç Reis vessel completed a 234-day mission collecting 3D seismic data across 4,464 square kilometers in three offshore blocks, and the Cagri Bey drillship has since commenced drilling operations in Somalia. Without strong institutions, contractual transparency, and equitable distribution mechanisms, Somalia risks falling into the “resource curse,” whereby extractive wealth intensifies conflict and inequality rather than reducing them.”
“Long-term Stability: Offshore hydrocarbon partnerships can drive industrialization and provide vital state revenue. Yet, in fragile contexts like Somalia, unlocking this potential depends entirely on institutional transparency and robust fiscal management to prevent the “resource curse” and mitigate maritime security threats.”
“Natural resources partnerships, including offshore oil and gas exploration, can contribute to long-term development and stability if supported by strong institutions, transport revenue management, environmental safeguards, and inclusive economic policies. In Somalia`s case, hydrocarbon development could generate revenues for public services, infrastructure, and job creation. Nevertheless, without effective governance and equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, resource wealth may exacerbate existing political and social tensions rather than reduce them.”
DevelopmentAid: As non-traditional development actors like Türkiye expand their role in Africa, how might this reshape the global development aid and the influence of traditional donors?
“Turkey’s growing presence in Somalia represents a direct challenge to the Western monopoly over development cooperation. Turkey seeks to extend its influence across Africa and strengthen its energy security, in a continent where China, Russia, Gulf States, and Western powers all vie for sway. The Turkish model is distinguished by its absence of political conditionality: Turkey channels all of its official development assistance to the continent through bilateral channels, making it an attractive security provider and giving it an advantage to establish a military footprint and control over strategic ports in the Horn of Africa. The figures underscore this strategic expansion: Turkish development aid grew from just $601 million in 2005 to approximately US$7.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a sustained and deliberate strategic commitment. This model pressures traditional donors to reconsider their approaches, as recipient countries now hold greater negotiating power by being able to choose among competing partners. Geopolitical competition also carries risks. In the Somali case, a Turkish intelligence report concludes that Somalia’s future depends on whether it can build functional institutions, reduce militant threats, and stabilize its economy, implicitly acknowledging that no external alliance, however ambitious, can substitute for the imperative of domestic institutional consolidation.”
“The Reshaped Aid Landscape: The expansion of non-traditional actors like Turkey fundamentally challenges the monopoly of traditional donors. African nations are no longer passive recipients but active strategists leveraging multi-alignment. This forces traditional institutions to modernize their frameworks, shifting the global development aid landscape toward competitive, asset-driven partnerships.”
“The growing engagement of non-traditional actors such as Turkey is reshaping the global development landscape by offering alternative sources of finance, expertise, and political partnership. This trend is likely to increase competition among development partners, encourage more diversified cooperation models, and gradually reduce the dominance of traditional Western donors in shaping development priorities across Africa.”
See also: The risks and opportunities of the India–EU Free Trade Agreement | Experts’ Opinions
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