It has been almost a year and half since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic. While the hope was that a vaccine would put an end to it, with more and more variants coming to light, there remains much uncertainty and anxiousness among the world’s populations. The question on everyone’s mind is: When will this pandemic end — and how?
When will the COVID-19 pandemic end, and how?
“During this period, the world has been struggling enormously and aimlessly to tackle the pandemic with all available means. If we analyse the current pandemic trend across the world then we may see an erratic pattern of the rate of infection of the COVID-19 virus with the greatest level of unpredictability. This virus has been mutating so frequently and scientists all over the world are also not confident about the nature and outcome of upcoming mutations. A few schools of thought are predicting that this deadly virus is probably in its final stages of mutation although other schools are saying more variants are waiting to come to light. This pandemic is much more complicated than other pandemics the world has so far seen. Three major factors make this pandemic highly complicated – the nature of the RNA virus, the rate of infection, and poor hygienic practices throughout the world. The nature of this virus is beyond control except the rate of infection (partially through lockdowns) and hygienic practices. In this age of liberalization, most countries have been really struggling to encourage their citizens to adopt good hygienic practices (wearing masks in public places, maintaining social distancing, and washing hands frequently with soap and water) and subsequently convincing citizens to follow the rules during lockdowns. On the other hand, most people do not have any option but to go outside to earn their daily livelihoods. Hence the only viable solution is to vaccinate every person in the world. Although the world has now developed vaccines against this virus, vaccinating at least 80-90% of the population globally remains highly challenging in order to achieve herd immunity within 3 to 4 years. Universal vaccination against COVID-19 is affected by three main factors – vaccine geopolitics, the production capacity of companies, and the production costs. By considering its biological nature and other complexities, this virus in the form of a pandemic will remain in the world for at least 3 to 4 years before the COVID-19 infection will become a routine infection just like the common flu and we will need to be protected by having yearly or half-yearly booster shots. From an epidemiological point of view, the rate of infection will go down slowly with the advent of time and the world is going to see a ‘More mutation, more weakness’ pattern in the coming years.”
“No one knows when this pandemic will end. We cannot say for sure that it will. The influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 did not end but instead became the ancestor of seasonal influenzas. The first cholera pandemic emerged in the Ganges delta in 1817 and since then has delivered seven global pandemics and many devastating outbreaks. It is with us still. Other pandemics, like HIV/AIDS, are also still with us but we have learned better ways to live with them. The only pandemic disease we have declared victory over (with credibility) is smallpox for which the vaccine was first invented in the late 1790s. Smallpox has not occurred naturally since 1977. A real success for vaccination. Coronaviruses have been known to infect humans since the 1960s. Before this pandemic, there were two significant scares with novel coronaviruses: SARS CoV in 2003 and MERS CoV in 2012. Both could have become pandemics; both were more lethal than SARS Cov-2. Perhaps this is why they did not realise their pandemic potential. Many believed after the introduction of antibiotics that humanity had beaten infectious diseases or that it was just a matter of time. Now it is very apparent that this is not what is happening. Instead, with climate change, deforestation, and ecosystem destruction, the balance required for the maintenance of homeostasis on the planet we inhabit has been tipped. We, as a species, are more vulnerable not only to novel pathogens but to diseases we thought we could treat. This pandemic may not end, and we will likely soon have others. To evolve, we must adapt and learn to live in our world that relies on microbes for its balance, for life. Vaccines can work like they did for smallpox but we need global collaboration and not international competition.”
“COVID-19 will not end very soon but we can develop herd immunity through time. The best way to think about the end of the pandemic is when ‘the world’ develops herd immunity, not just a single country. Sharing resources worldwide fairly would facilitate fighting the pandemic quickly. We are passing through this trying time following the advice given by the scientific community and we will keep doing so. The COVID-19 responses including vaccine development, so far, are promising. Even though we have seen the virus changing its variant to overcome the protection gained by the vaccine or individual immunity from the previous infection, I believe the scientific community is progressing in parallel.”
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