Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to have major consequences for many of Ukraine’s neighbors. The Republic of Moldova, a tiny neutral country in Eastern Europe and the poorest on the continent, with a population of 2.6 million, is already suffering the consequences with more than 400,000 refugees having arrived on its soil. People are concerned that the war could reach Moldova after a series of explosions were reported in the country’s breakaway region of Transnistria, a Russian-backed region which borders Ukraine. What do experts have to say about the possible effects of the war in Ukraine on Moldova? Check out some opinions below.
Key Takeaways:
- There is growing concern that Moldova and Transnistria could be dragged into Russia’s war against Ukraine. Transnistria is an unrecognised Moscow-backed sliver of land bordering southwestern Ukraine.
- A red flag for Moldova lies in the fact that the Russian troops approaching Odesa may have a plan to create a military corridor with the Transnistrian region.
- According to international voices, if not urgently supported by the international community, the Republic of Moldova may become an easy target for Putin’s regime, thus significantly endangering the Ukrainian defense system.
What does the war in Ukraine mean for Moldova, economically and geographically?
“The war in Ukraine is moving towards a new stage. Beginning as a war of general territorial conquest, it has recently scaled down to attempt to entrench the Russian Federation’s control over Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Also, it has developed a stronger economic dimension in the past weeks, by entangling military warfare with reciprocal economic sanctions, energy disputes, and attempts to inflict as much destruction as possible on the Ukrainian economy and exports. In addition, the next stage of confrontations seems to focus on maritime warfare in the Black Sea, intended to completely break away Ukraine’s access and thus severely affect its exports and imports. From this point of view, Moldova, which is considerably dependent on using the Ukrainian port of Odesa for its imports, may well be affected should the Russian army gain and maintain full control over the Northern shores of the Black Sea and possibly over the mouth of the Danube. The Snake Island, located only kilometres away from Transnistria, Odesa, the mouth of the Danube (currently used for transporting goods to and from Ukraine), and from the Romanian border and the NATO military base located nearby at Kogalniceanu, is of particular importance for Moldova. Nevertheless, at this stage, it seems logistically difficult for the Russian Federation to connect with Transnistria bypassing the NATO forces, the Romanian and the Ukrainian army, in close vicinity, while the troops stationed in Transnistria are, for the time being, small in number and poorly equipped. Moldova has already started importing electricity from Ukraine since the 12th of May, thus its resilience to possible escalations in Transnistria, on which it used to depend for 80% of its electricity, has now improved, as well as following the synchronisation with the European power grid, ENTSOG-E, earlier in March.”
“In terms of economic, security, and defense resilience, the Republic of Moldova is the most fragile and vulnerable country that borders Ukraine. There are several reasons that explain this fragility:
- Moldova is the only neighbor of Ukraine (except Belarus) that is not a member of the EU or a NATO member.
- Moldova is by far the country that has received the most refugees from Ukraine as a proportion of its own population along with the fact that it was the poorest country in Europe before the war.
- Moldova faces internal security threats due to the existing separatist regime in the Transnistrian region of the country that is supported by the Russian Federation’s army, illegally located in the region.
- The weaknesses of its own military power that would be unable to respond to potential aggression from outside.
- The presence of significant pro-Russian political forces within the country.
- Strong dependence on Russian energy sources (over 80%).”
How should the international community react to Putin’s threats of a Russian move on Moldova?
“The European Union may use its soft power, while NATO may use its hard power in order to manifest support for Moldova. Thus, the EU can increase its financial support and relax its rules for people’s and goods’ mobility, so that it also covers Transnistria. In this way, both the local population and the leaders of the separatist region would be more motivated to see the benefits of a peaceful, European way, as an alternative to the perspective of a war on the side of Russia. Although NATO would not intervene militarily in Moldova, it may strengthen its presence on the Eastern flank, at the Black Sea, in order to enhance the overall security of the region, while respecting Moldova’s neutrality.”
“If not urgently supported by the international community, the Republic of Moldova might become an easy target for Putin’s regime, thus significantly endangering the Ukrainian defense system. Along with urgent humanitarian and financial support, the key international players must provide security guarantees for Moldova’s sovereignty and invest in increasing the country’s defense capacity, plus providing a clear perspective for integration into the EU.
See also: The war in Ukraine impact on the MENA region | Experts’ Opinions
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