Food security is a basic human need that involves ensuring unrestricted access to sufficient and nutritious food. The COVID-19 crisis had already significantly impaired the efforts of the developmental community to attain a satisfactory state of food security for people living in the least developed and developing countries. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, two of the largest producers and exporters of agricultural products in the world, is now disrupting global markets and poses serious concerns for food security for many countries, especially for low-income food import-dependent countries.
To expand on this issue, DevelopmentAid invited Kerstin Marit Uhl and Ranja Chrys Rakotomahanina of management4health (M4H), both accomplished professionals with vast experience in the development sector, to discuss the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global food security and analyze possible policy responses to the looming food crisis.
M4H assists businesses, policymakers, and donor entities with the design and implementation of various developmental projects through high-quality, innovative, and cross-sectoral methods with the prime goal of improving access to quality care and strengthening the efficiency of health systems. The organization has been awarded several high-profile contracts related to food security in Rwanda (the European Commission), Tajikistan (GIZ), and Somalia (FCDO/ongoing).
As of 2021, Ukraine and Russia were responsible for a 28% share of global wheat exports. Together, the two countries supply about 12% of the calories traded internationally. Over the last 20 years, both states have established themselves as major producers of wheat, gradually overtaking the United States as the leading exporters. In the context of the ongoing war and the blockade of Ukrainian maritime export routes, the state of global food security could worsen making this conflict a catalyst for mass hunger.
Fig.1. Market share in global wheat exports
Source: Kerstin Marit Uhl (M4H). Development Insights webinar with DevelopmentAid (9 June 2022)
With regard to export destinations, almost the entire share of Ukrainian and Russian wheat is directed towards emerging and developing economies in Africa and Asia. For example, about 40% of the combined share of wheat exports goes to Egypt, followed by Turkey with 22%, Indonesia with 18%, and Bangladesh with 14% of the total.
Fig.2. Top destinations of wheat exports (2017-2020)
Source: Kerstin Marit Uhl (M4H). Development Insights webinar with DevelopmentAid (9 June 2022)
Numerous other states also rely heavily on wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia. For instance, the countries in the Caucasus region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) have about 90% of their wheat import needs covered by Russia. On the other hand, Lebanon (~50%), Tunisia (~50%), and Libya (~40%) depend greatly on wheat exports arriving from Ukraine. It is of note that some countries with less dependency in real terms (Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen) might suffer the most due to severe local food security conditions.
Fig. 3. The rate of wheat import dependency, by country (2020)
Source: Kerstin Marit Uhl (M4H). Development Insights webinar with DevelopmentAid (9 June 2022)
Kerstin mentioned that global food prices were on the rise even before the war started with the vast majority of least developed and developing countries struggling to fully recover from the COVID-19 crisis. The ongoing conflict between two of the largest food producers has accelerated this trend pushing prices to record highs. As of May 2022, the indexed price of vegetable oils had increased by 130% since 2020 while cereals, sugar, dairy products, and meat increased by 68%, 51%, 40%, and 30% respectively compared to the same period.
Fig.4. Main indicators of the Food Price Index (Jan – May 2022)
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization – FAO Food Price Index
Lessons learned
Ranja presented some lessons learned based on their experience working on projects related to food security which the development community could take into consideration when focusing on the current crisis:
- Amid major supply and demand disruptions, Technical Assistance could be engaged to strengthen value chains and ensure the diversification of products and supply chains
- Food security projects should combine prompt action followed by long-term commitments to sustain and maximize impact
- Food security issues call for multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional approaches that consider local socio-economic specifics such as gender equality, intergeneration dialogue, food production, nutrition programming, awareness of household hygiene, animal health (one health), environmental and climate adaptation
Possible responses to the looming food crisis
- Improve access to nutritious or ready-to-use therapeutic food for vulnerable social groups such as children and pregnant women
- The development community should aim to increase resilience to price spikes for vulnerable groups
- The expansion of existing food programs or the engagement of current project frameworks could accelerate the implementation of emergency responses
- The implementation of nutrition-sensitive agriculture that targets the diversification of farming systems
- Decrease dependence on fertilizer by promoting crops that need fewer fertilizers such as beans
For those who did not have the opportunity to join us for this online event, a link to the recorded version can be found here. The presentation materials can be requested at e.rata@developmentaid.org
We invite you to our next webinar on “Doing Business with EBRD. Corporate and Technical Assistance Procurement” which will take place on 23 June 2022 at 4 PM (Brussels) or 10 AM (Washington DC). Johan Bert, Associate Director at EBRD, will provide an overview of the role of consultancy services in EBRD operations and will provide some practical considerations for building fruitful partnerships and positive business collaborations.
You can register here.
DevelopmentAid is the leading provider of business intelligence and recruitment tools designed to assist all those active in the development sector. Join today and gain access to exclusive information on the full array of upcoming business opportunities, past awards, and contractor lists for over 200 international donors.
