The majority of African countries may soon have to grapple with more extreme levels of poverty and inequality as climate change takes its toll on agriculture, infrastructure, and socio-economic development – while the climate financing gap widens. The State of the Climate in Africa Report 2020 clearly shows that in less than a decade Africa is poised to face the challenges of increased droughts, intense and stronger heatwaves, storms, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, floods, cyclones, and wildfires.
“By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people will be exposed to drought, floods, and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place,” Josefa Sacko, the AU Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture says in the report’s foreword.
Jean Paul Adam, the director of the Technology, Climate Change and Natural Resources Division (TCND) at the UN Economic Commission for Africa highlighted that although the continent is home to 17% of the global population, it “is responsible for less than 4% of greenhouse gas emissions and has the least capacity to adapt to the impacts of a warming climate… as Africa is warming more and at a faster rate than the global average”. He pointed out the need for more urgent and appropriate policy responses both in Africa and globally.
Such urgent responses are largely dependent on financing. However, a recently released report by the Climate Policy Initiative highlighted the significant climate financing gap between the US$2.8 trillion that Africa needs and the financing of this thus far.
Fig.1. Climate finance needs in Africa by region
Source: The State of Climate Finance in Africa: Climate Finance Needs of African Countries
Africa’s 2020-2030 climate action plan, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is expected to be financed at US$250 billion each year for the 10-year period. However, the Climate Policy Initiative report shows that the total domestic and international annual climate finance flows in Africa for 2020 were US$30 billion – equating to 12% of the amount needed.
African governments have committed US$264 billion of domestic public resources, about 10% of the total cost, and, considering that African countries have a combined GDP of US$2.4 trillion (World Bank 2021), US$2.5 trillion must come from international public sources and the domestic and international private sectors.
In its African Economic Outlook 2022, the African Development Bank says the continent needs between US$1.3 trillion and US$1.6 trillion in financing between 2022 and 2030 to effectively address climate change. Of this amount, US$715 billion is needed for mitigation, US$1.3 billion for technical and technological needs, US$289-440 billion for loss and damage, while US$259-407 billion will be needed to finance climate adaptation.
Fig.2. Average annual climate-induced losses as a share of GDP per capita growth in Africa, by country and region, 1986–2015
Source: African Economic Outlook 2022
At COP26, the issue of rich countries financing the consequences of global warming, a demand often referred to as “loss and damage”, was raised but a dialogue on this issue was postponed until 2024.
“In recent years, many developing countries and activists have called for a fund to compensate poor countries for the devastation caused by climate change, for which rich countries are disproportionately responsible because of their past emissions. This call was rejected at last year’s summit (COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland),” explained Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, who is also the President-designate of COP27- the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference which will take place in Egypt from 7 to 18 November 2022.
The topic of Africa’s climate finance deficit is expected to be squarely on the agenda at “the African COP”.
