How can we prepare for the upcoming food shortages? | Experts’ Opinions

According to the Global Report on Food Crises 2022, levels of hunger remain alarmingly high around the world. In 2021, they surpassed all previous records with close to 193 million people across 53 countries/territories being acutely food insecure and in need of urgent assistance. Now, the unfolding war in Ukraine is likely to exacerbate the already severe 2022 forecasts. Many voices warn that global food shortages are coming and the world needs to be prepared. We discussed this subject with several international development experts. Check out their views below.

Which crops will the world run short of, and why?

“There is a great likelihood of corn/maize shortages The overdependence on using inorganic fertilizer in most sub-Saharan countries is likely going to affect yield. Globally, fertilizer prices have gone up by 30% since the beginning of 2022. Soaring prices are driven by a confluence of factors, including surging input costs, supply disruptions caused by sanctions (Belarus and Russia), and export restrictions (China). For example, urea prices have surpassed their 2008 peaks, while phosphates and potash prices are inching closer to 2008 levels. Concerns around fertilizer affordability and availability have been amplified by the war in Ukraine. With climate change already affecting the yields of maize in most of these countries, the current trend of fertilizer prices soaring means most of the rural community corn growers will not afford to buy the fertilizer.”

“Based on my experiences, food shortages will be in our basic staples such as corn, rice, beans, sugar cane, etc. With the many restrictions that plagued the world during the COVID-19 pandemic, logistics and the economy have been brought to a standstill. Countries are beginning to open up, but the effects of the pandemic still linger especially in developing and developed countries where we see that the price of goods overall has gone up and that increasingly certain items are unavailable. With the basics being in short supply, there is a ripple effect that goes throughout the entire food ecosystem that makes it harder for everyone to get what they need.”

“Latin America and Caribbean countries are facing severe environmental, economic, and social problems (food, nutritional insecurity, and unemployment) as an effect of climate change, the deterioration of natural resources, inflation, the high prices of food (corn, beans, rice, wheat, vegetables), fertilizers and fuels and the COVID 19 pandemic.”

“The food shortages that will be faced in the near future are the result of decisions that concentrated production capacity and the regional specialization of food production. The food system is currently dependent on longer and disassembled supply chains which tend to be more dependent on external inputs like fuel or fertilizers and therefore more vulnerable to shocks. Historically, societies have always depended on the exchange of food and goods, integrating culture and increasing diversity. However, in the last 30 years, policies toward the commoditization of land, and deregulation of the primary sector have reinforced monopolies along the supply chain, leading millions of smallholder farmers to overdependency on a few suppliers and a less diverse system. What is expected is that inflation will increase the price of staple basic products, affecting the most vulnerable. Moreover, aid organizations that rely on the international market of grains may also be affected and hinder relief operations.”

Which countries are going to be the most affected by the global food crisis?

“Sub-Saharan countries including Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe among others will be affected if fertilizer prices are not put in check or farmers are not supported. It is said if they can procure supplies from other exporting countries, greater distances and transportation rerouting will lead to additional costs, pushing fertilizer prices even higher and/or a lack of availability.”

“Unfortunately, the most vulnerable will be those with a poor grasp on the pandemic (North Korea, African countries, etc.) Those countries that are not able to control the pandemic and allow the economy to try to resume a sense of normality will not be able to sustain themselves for much longer as the world reaps the effects of war, hunger, the pandemic, and economic downturn.”

“El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haiti, Peru, and other countries in the world have high levels of food and nutritional insecurity for the poor and vulnerable populations.”

“Several studies highlight a number of countries currently affected by the food crisis, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan. However, more important is to understand the drivers that lead to this dire situation. Understanding the combination of factors that lead to food insecurity helps to properly assess different territories. The most critical are the emergence of different types of conflicts, insecurity in access to land and resources, economic inequality, institutional instability, and weather extremes. The combination of these factors and the resilience capacity of countries to effectively respond to them are key to foreseeing and preparing for food crises. Moreover, socio-territorial differences must be taken into consideration as food shortage is always territorially relative. Within a country or even a city, food crises affect population groups in different ways. As an example, in Brazil, one of the biggest food producers in the world, the increase in commodity prices during the pandemic led millions of people to food insecurity, however, it has benefited some agribusinesses and meat exporters showing that it is not a matter of production capacity, but political and economic decisions that result in social and spatial inequalities.”

How should people and the international community prepare for food crisis/shortages?

“There is a need to diversify the crops to those that do not need a lot of fertilizer like sorghum and to promote the use of organic manure to replace synthetic fertilizers. Farmers in poor countries should embrace a radical change to respond to the current global economic trend. Governments already have the resources available to manage this change. There is a lot of waste (manure – ed. note) that is just dumped. If deliberate efforts were put in place, this waste could be turned into organic fertilizer. Thus, there is going to be improved waste management and in the long run, this will achieve food security.”

“Living below your means and prioritizing health, food, and sustaining your family will be critical during these times. It is also important to consider cutting excessive expenses that aren’t needed and living as frugally as possible. In short, it is important to prepare for the worse even if the worse does not come. Also, help those around you if you are doing well during these hard times.”

“Each country affected by the insecurity food crisis should declare a national priority policy on supply and access to food and nutrition and develop a national strategy with the participation of national institutions, multilateral and international donors, the private sector, and the affected communities in order to: a) identify and prioritize areas and rural communities with greater vulnerability, poverty, unemployment and malnutrition and to identify and assess priority needs; b) identify current programs, projects and its actions in food and nutritional security and determine its strengths, weakness, needs for new opportunities for more technical and economic resources to achieve greater impacts in solving the problems of food insecurity and nutrition; c) develop and promote other programs and projects that will contribute to food and nutrition security for the poor and vulnerable population; d) identify and request technical and economic support from multilateral institutions.”

“First of all, as a society, we must embrace the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and several later multilateral resolutions that state food to be a human right. No one should be deprived of the right to be nourished adequately. This means that access to land and the means of sustainable production should be protected – including access to inputs, knowledge, technology, communication, etc. Food should be more and more considered as a common good as no society can thrive when its members are unable to fully develop their capacities. As for the current crisis, two parallel actions should be considered: one is to work in international cooperation towards establishing agreements to control the speculation over food staples; the second is to improve local capacities to cope with the crisis, such as public storage facilities, land reforms, and strengthening farmers organizations. Finally, food aid organizations should not be dependent on the world market and fewer countries as sources of grains. Strategies of decentralization, capacity building, open access to technologies, and bottom-up solutions should be prioritized in the development agenda.”

See also: Energy poverty and prices on the rise. Consequences and Solutions | Experts’ Opinions

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