Climate change is causing the weather around the world to become more extreme. As a result, severe weather conditions are predicted for later this year as the global climate shifts towards an El Niño event. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that is characterized by the warming of surface waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, leading to significant changes in weather patterns worldwide. How will this phenomenon be felt worldwide in 2023? Check out the possible scenarios in DevelopmentAid expert-members’ answers below.
Key Takeaways:
- El Niño events occur irregularly and vary in frequency. On average, El Niño tends to happen every 2 to 7 years, although the intervals between events can be longer or shorter.
- The past three years have been dominated by a cooler La Nina pattern which occurs in breaks between the El Nino phenomenon.
- The emergence of El Niño in 2023-2024 has raised concerns about the possibility of unprecedented heatwaves and severe weather events on a global scale.
- Experts warn that the El Niño event will pose a particular threat to food security and nutrition across the world and the risk of outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, Dengue Fever and malaria.
DevelopmentAid: What causes an El Niño?
“El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon resulting from the periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and around the equator, also including the Pacific coast of South America. The phenomenon is caused by a complex interaction between the oceans and the atmosphere. It is triggered by consistent strong winds called Trade winds, which blow from East to West across the Pacific, causing warm waters to ‘pile up’ to the Western tropical Pacific. This westward push of surface warm waters activates a continuous supply of deep cooler waters around the coast of Ecuador, Chile and Peru, through the process called upwelling, creating a strong air pressure gradient over the tropical Pacific Ocean called Southern Oscillation. The El Niño event is therefore strengthened by the weakening of the westward-blowing trade winds along the Equator, canceling out the previously created temperature gradient. This causes warm surface water to traverse eastward along the Equator from the Western Pacific to the coast of North America. The widespread coverage of warm waters heats up the atmosphere through the process of conduction, setting-off buoyance of air and the development of unsettled weather that affects prevailing winds which affect temperatures and rainfall patterns in specific locations around the world.”
DevelopmentAid: How will EL Niño affect the world’s weather in 2023?
“The El Niño phase will influence changes in global winds and disrupt global atmospheric circulation which helps to distribute thermal energy (heat) across the Earth’s surface. It has an opposite impact on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world, contributing to a widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas in some parts of the world, resulting in extreme heatwaves and fueling the likelihood of higher global temperatures. The El Niño will likely cause unusually severe, longer and colder winter weather at higher latitudes of North and South America and Washington DC. In the Central/Eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño can fuel hurricanes whilst hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean’s basin. In Ecuador, northern Peru and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the event influences extreme weather that is associated with increased rainfall contributing to coastal flooding, sea level rise and erosion in most parts of southern South America, southern United States, central Asia, and the Horn of Africa. In contrast, in the same year, El Niño will be expected to cause severe droughts over Australia, Southern Africa, Indonesia, India and parts of southern Asia, contributing to severe damage to crops and livelihoods.”
DevelopmentAid: How should the international community prepare for these events?
“The El Niño event will pose a particular threat to food security and nutrition across the world due to the high risk of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods or cyclones. There will be high risk of outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, Dengue Fever and malaria which are a real threat to people’s lives and health. Therefore, the international community must plan early for disaster response scenarios and boost the resilience of vulnerable communities to save lives by supporting the most vulnerable people, communities, and governments to prepare for, respond to and support a sustainable recovery from El Niño-related disasters and shocks. The international community may also help to integrate an improved understanding of disaster resilience against the possible impacts of El Niño on food security, livelihood and nutrition into local, national, and global policy and planning, and help to develop anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts. It is also crucial to support disaster resilience work for vulnerable communities threatened by these hazards, including establishing water supply points (irrigation systems) to boost agribusiness, as water reservoirs dry out leading to a severe change in the availability of water and local biodiversity.”
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