People in middle-income countries are eating more meat, dairy, and fish as their incomes rise, but the world needs to boost farm productivity to tackle hunger and cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, according to a press release from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 shows that global per capita calorie intake of livestock and fish products will increase by 6% over the next decade. Lower-middle-income countries are driving this growth, with consumption expected to jump 24%—nearly four times faster than the global average. While this rise in nutrient-rich food intake in lower-middle-income countries will bring average per capita intake to 364 kcal daily, big gaps within and across countries will remain challenging.
In low-income countries, average daily per capita intake of animal-source foods is projected at 143 kcal, well below the 300 kcal benchmark that FAO uses to analyze the cost and affordability of a healthy diet. Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to expand by about 14% through to 2034, mainly helped by productivity gains in middle-income countries. But this growth means expanded animal herds and cropland areas. While the output of meat, dairy products and eggs is set to increase by 17%, total global inventories of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry will expand by 7%.
These developments will lead to a 6% increase in direct agricultural GHG emissions over the next decade, reflecting a declining carbon intensity of global direct emissions linked to on-farm production. Projected productivity improvements are expected to put downward pressure on real agricultural commodity prices. This could pose big challenges for smallholder farmers who are vulnerable to market volatility and have limited capacity to adopt the innovative technologies needed to increase productivity.
The report says more work is needed to improve agricultural productivity to tackle the dual challenges of reducing hunger and agricultural GHG emissions. A scenario analysis suggests that global hunger could be eliminated and direct agricultural GHG emissions reduced by 7% from current levels if combined investments are made in emissions-reduction technologies and in increased food production through a 15% productivity improvement. Widespread adoption of currently available emissions-reducing technologies, including precision farming, livestock feed improvements, better nutrient and water management, and scalable low-cost practices like crop rotations and intercropping, will be required to achieve these goals.
With potential supply chain disruptions, multilateral cooperation and a rule-based agricultural trade system are also key, as the outlook projects that 22% of all calories will cross international borders before final consumption. Helping agricultural trade flows will benefit balancing food deficits and surpluses, stabilizing prices and boosting food security and sustainability.
