El Niño threatens to deepen Madagascar's hunger crisis, CARE warns

Millions of people in Madagascar are facing severe hunger after years of drought and poor harvests, and El Niño could bring another season of below-average rainfall to the country’s south, according to a press release by CARE. The warning focuses on the Grand South, where families already struggling to recover from failed crops risk further losses in the coming rainy season. Meteo Madagascar is forecasting strong to very strong El Niño conditions between October 2026 and February 2027. Parts of Androy, northwestern Anosy, and much of Atsimo-Andrefana are expected to receive less rainfall than usual during the early part of the rainy season. CARE is urging anticipatory action to prevent deeper suffering across the island’s driest regions.

Madagascar is an island nation in the Indian Ocean, off the southeastern coast of Africa, and its southern region, known as the Grand South, is the country’s driest. Many families here depend on farming for both food and income, making seasonal rainfall essential to their livelihoods. Recurring drought and increasingly erratic rainfall have made farming harder, while limited access to clean water, roads, electricity, and markets slows recovery. Rising food prices add pressure as staples like cassava and maize become more expensive. In parts of southern Madagascar, families have already run out of food from their last harvests months earlier than usual.

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), approximately 3.72 million people across the analyzed areas of Madagascar are projected to face crisis-level hunger or worse between October 2026 and February 2027. Nearly 426,000 people are expected to face emergency levels of food insecurity during that period. Across the Grand South and Grand South-East, an estimated 502,000 children under the age of five are experiencing or expected to experience acute malnutrition. Of these, around 78,000 are expected to face severe acute malnutrition, which can be life-threatening without treatment. Anosy, Androy, and Atsimo-Andrefana are among the areas of greatest concern.

Razafinandrasana Marie Neutte, a farmer from Tsivory in the Anosy region, harvested just three and a half sacks of rice this year, compared with 100 sacks last year, while her cassava, maize, and groundnut crops failed entirely. Her work as a seamstress has also dried up because her customers, also farmers, can no longer afford her services. “We have lost almost everything because of the prolonged drought,” she said. In Anjamahavelo, farmer Fanomezantsoa Marie Jeanne noted that the soil is already very dry and that a few rain showers are not enough to guarantee a good harvest. CARE project manager Dina Ramanoelison explained that strong southerly winds often dry the soil quickly after rainfall.

CARE and its partners are supporting anticipatory preparedness efforts in southern Madagascar, including sharing climate forecasts, monitoring water resources, and helping families protect seeds and livelihoods. Local leaders, including Restandy Armand, President of the Fokontany Anjamahavelo administrative area, are encouraging families to build food stocks and save earnings from recent harvests. Mirana Fanomezantsoa, CARE Madagascar’s Country Director, warned that the window to reduce future hunger is narrowing and that acting now will be far less costly than responding after families have exhausted their coping options. CARE is calling for greater investment in early warning systems, support for farmers and local livelihoods, improved access to water, and immediate humanitarian assistance. The organization has worked in Madagascar since 1992, partnering with local organizations to address poverty and expand economic opportunities, particularly for women.