One single day can change the lives of millions of people forever. That is what happened on February 6, 2023 for millions across Turkey and Syria after a series of consecutive earthquakes sent shockwaves across hundreds of miles, causing over 45,000 deaths and colossal infrastructure damage. This tragic event echoed around the entire world, bringing thousands of rescuers to the scene. Read some opinions below on how this event could further affect the two countries and the international community.
Key Takeaways:
- On February 6, magnitude 7.8 and 7.6 earthquakes struck southeast Turkey and neighbouring Syria.
- More than four million Syrians who rely on immediate humanitarian aid live in the affected region according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
- More than 264,000 apartments in Turkey were destroyed as a result of the earthquakes according to preliminary data.
- Experts suggest that the devastating events could have an impact on the upcoming elections, inflation, health, infrastructure, the refugee crisis, and international relations.
DevelopmentAid: What sectors in Turkey will be most affected by the devastating earthquakes and in what way?
“In February 2023, the Kahramanmaras earthquake event devastated an economically disadvantaged region of Turkey that is also home to many refugees. The quick succession of two earthquakes strained state capacity; as the initial response was struggling to mobilize, a second severe earthquake and numerous aftershocks further decimated the region. According to official figures, as of February 17, at least 39,600 lives have been lost and hundreds of thousands injured (in Turkey alone). Home to over 13 million people, this region of Turkey has 10 cities and is socio-economically diverse. An initial report issued by one of the country’s prominent business associations (Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation, or TURKONFED) shows that the average GDP per capita across the 10 earthquake-hit cities is US$5,305. Constituting 10% of Turkish exports and 15% of agricultural output, the region has many small-and-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are part of both global and domestic supply chains. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates that at least 1% of Turkey’s GDP will be lost due to the earthquake, while the TURKONFED report estimates that the total loss will be around 10% of Turkey’s GDP in 2023. These economic losses come amidst already challenging macro-economic and macro-financial conditions: Turkey is in desperate need of foreign currency, inflation has skyrocketed since late 2021, and the associated loss of household purchasing power influences economically vulnerable groups the most. Moreover, the agricultural sector and the livestock industry are projected to decline (further exacerbating already high inflation) and, as SMEs struggle to recover, Turkey’s exports may decline considerably. On the fiscal front, public debt will likely rise significantly due in part to the financing of reconstruction, pushing interest rates higher at a time when they are already artificially low. Disruptions to trade and rising interest rates will likely degrade Turkey’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The human losses are still the most dramatic. Thousands of people have fled the region in the immediate wake of the disaster, disrupting livelihoods and placing pressure on destination cities. Of the families remaining, many are taking shelter in tents during bitterly cold weather. Reconstruction will likely take years. More tragically, the impact on three vulnerable groups – women, children and refugees – is immense. Women suffer emotionally and economically: families depend a lot on women during the recovery and they have been mostly employed in the informal sector before the earthquakes. Many children have lost their parents and for many others, education will likely be interrupted. Refugees – victims of a human-made disaster (i.e., Syria’s civil war) – are likely to face recovery without the support networks and social services available to Turkish citizens. Employment will be more difficult to obtain, particularly as many were working in the low-paying, hostile, and insecure informal sector. Furthermore, the politicisation of the refugee crisis, particularly as general and local elections loom, may entrench resentment against refugees at a time when they need help the most.”
“Excluding undocumented immigrants, 15.7 million people are thought to be directly affected. The earthquake will also have several economic effects. Agriculture is of great importance in the region where the earthquake caused serious landscape changes and deterioration with entire orchards being swept out. Tens of thousands of buildings were destroyed. Billions of dollars of agricultural machinery and equipment became unusable. Large factories and businesses are said to be not permanently damaged. There are 140 dams and ponds in this area. Luckily, they were not harmed, but it will take additional resources to find out how their structure has been affected. Agro-based industry is particularly important. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the share of the region in Turkey’s GDP is 9.3% while 4% of state taxes and 10% of stock investors are also located in the region. The financial result of the earthquake is interpreted differently by various institutions. The Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation (TÜRKONFED) said the impact of the disaster is around US$84.1 billion. E-commerce, which is today’s shopping method, will gain importance after this disaster. Accordingly, logistics, transportation, supply and imports may increase and in particular, bringing the most demanded products at affordable prices can turn disaster into an opportunity.”
“The recent earthquakes in Turkey have displaced many. They will impact living conditions and have a socio-economic impact that will linger and affect the quality of life over the months to come. Due to displacement, there will generally be increased dependencies and slower sector activities internally. The sectors that will be most affected will be healthcare and construction. While these sectors will see activities going to international contractors, they will require much relief and development work. There will be increased demand, and healthcare will require employment and rapid expansion to cover incidence points and displacement provisions. Construction will experience increased activity, and the policy environment is likely to change to ensure sustainable engineering to mitigate risks and allow for a swift recovery; this will involve global partnerships and the adoption of technology in construction processes for accurate analysis and best decision-making. There should be a unison between the two sectors to ensure sustainable and preventative engineering that could revamp global standards.”
“During this rescue and relief stage, children, girls and women are potentially highly likely to be unsafe due to sharing shelter in open spaces. People who need to leave their homes will have to stay outside in very unpleasant weather conditions, facing a lack of food, clean water and medications. There might also be a number of aftershocks every day so children, women and the elderly can still not cope in such an environment. In addition, the damage to basic infrastructures such as roads, the water supply network, and electricity access has also created difficulties in distributing relief items in the affected area. Last but not least, the earthquake survivors suffer psychological trauma by remembering the loss of their beloved family members/friends/ relatives.”
“The sectors in Turkey that will be mostly affected by the devastating earthquakes are the infrastructure, the social sector (through the election process that is forthcoming and thousands of Syrian refugees living in South-Central Turkey), and economic growth in general. Many buildings (both residential and commercial), hospitals, roads, schools, and recreation areas were heavily affected by the earthquake, and rebuilding and resuming daily activities will take some time before things return to normal. With the elections around the corner, the earthquakes might affect the results. Syrian refugees will be highly affected because they will receive little relief aid and funding for their daily lives. The health sector will be affected because most hospitals in the 10 provinces affected will have a lot of work to do to help to save people’s lives.”
“Before the quake, Turkey seemed to be stabilising its economy thanks to (1) corporate capital restrictions, (2) informal cash inflows, and (3) warm winter weather that has lowered gas prices on the continent, and reduced demand, which resulted in a dramatic decline in Turkey’s energy bill. The government has announced pay rises for civil servants and retirees that are higher than its inflation target, the minimum wage has also been raised significantly. Before the devastating earthquakes, the economy was expected to grow by about 3-3.5% in 2023. However, the affected region is one of the most economically important parts of the country after the areas around Istanbul. Turkey’s different regions are highly integrated, meaning that the recovery will be gradual and slow, resulting in a slight decline in national income per capita. In addition, the upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty. For the citizens, it may result in higher rates of unemployment and for the government, its change or a change of its economic model. Contributions from international development banks are essential but constrained by the government’s poor relations with the West, and will be made gradually and in tranches.”
“The civil and structural engineering disciplines need to stand up and say which buildings they designed and which buildings had no anti-earthquake designs. They need to determine whether the earthquake design is adequate and whether the collapsed buildings incorporated anti-earthquake measures. Why did some buildings remain undamaged and why? There needs to be a review of earthquake risks to see if the current code being used is adequate and they need to come up with methods to make buildings safer.”
“The impact of the event is not only regional, it has a global impact. The sectors of Turkey’s economy that are affected are civic forum and urban resilience, the power supply, the water supply, the food sector, road and rail communications, transportation – all have been dilapidated by the impact of the crustal block of Anatolia against the Iranian Fault block. The sectors being affected now are health care and management, pure water and power supply systems.”
“The most affected sectors will be healthcare – the earthquakes will put extra strain on the health systems already weakened by the Covid pandemic; the socio-economic structure – the provision of social amenities as basic social needs like housing are affected; food security – already a challenge due to political instability.”
DevelopmentAid: How will these events impact the rest of the world? Will they affect global shipping?
“Typically, disasters disrupt normal economic activity due to the loss of production, human and physical capital and/or infrastructure, leading to an immediate contraction in output. Moreover, issues such as looting can sometimes be observed. In addition, the destruction of roads and railways as well as other items related to transportation, negatively influence the economy because they make business relations more complicated. Natural disasters may create long-lasting impacts on the lives of people and, as an outcome of this, the tourism sector may be negatively affected due to the decrease of labor power and damage to tourism facilities or a worsening destination image with respect to the bad management of the crisis. Severe damage from disasters may contribute to job losses, supply shortages, and the prolonged construction of businesses. It may also delay transportation, shift government funds away from tourism, and influence negative media.”
“At the scale of international coordination, the disaster opened a window for friendlier relations in Turkey’s foreign affairs. Israeli, US, Greek, and Armenian foreign ministers have visited or will visit Turkey in the wake of the disaster. Diplomatic rapprochement might enable future work on bilateral disputes and the re-orientation of Turkey’s foreign policy (vis-à-vis energy security and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). At a time when multiple global crises are converging – natural disasters, climate change, threats to public health, socio-economic inequality, forced migration, and geopolitical tensions – any opportunity for international cooperation should be fully embraced. We hope that such collaboration can lead to a new era in which disaster response capacity is stronger both internally and multilaterally.”
“Despite people constructing their buildings following building code compliance, design basis earthquake guidelines and structural seismic detailing, the ground motion parameters of the main earthquakes and aftershocks were above the designed values. A huge amount of financial losses was reported due to the extreme damage so a huge amount of financial investment is needed for recovery, demolition, debris management and reconstruction. This money may have been utilised for other purposes if such a disaster had not occurred. Therefore, the rest of the world may feel some financial pressure, as money will be allocated to rebuild Turkey. On the other hand, there should be an opportunity to think, build and create community resilience by taking lessons from this. We should shift our design philosophy towards performance-based design, displacement-based spectra and site-specific design of infrastructures in order to build seismic resilient or disaster resilient structures.”
“International aid agencies and governments need to show solidarity with both Turkey and Syria for effective humanitarian support at all levels. I believe these natural disasters provide great lessons to other countries about the importance of preparedness and investments in earthquake resilience development and further improvement on current practices.”
“The rest of the world should be updating their risk from earthquakes as well as wind loading from cyclonic storms. Whilst this could be seen as a natural event, countries need to put aside funding for disasters as they will happen with greater frequency in the future due to climate change and will put a brake on countries’ rate of development.”
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