Project ID: P120788
Borrower/Bid No: KG-CS/IC-06/1


1. Goals and objectives of the work

The purpose of this work is to provide operational hydrological units of hydrometeorological services of the states of Central Asia with objective modern methods (criteria) of verification of skill in hydrological forecast in order to improve the quality of forecasts by improving their methodological base.

The main objective of the project is to develop methodology for verification of skill in hydrological forecasts, produced by hydrometeorological services in Central Asia, as well as recommendations on the criteria for the applicability of forecasting methods and the need for processing them. The given methodological guidelines should be developed for the benefit of the institutional strengthening of NHMS in the region of Central Asia, modern adaptation of the methodological framework of the CIS and the WMO on the assessment of the quality of hydrological forecasts to the conditions of the Central Asian region. In addition, developed methodological guideline on the verification of hydrological forecasts will contribute to a more objective and comparable verification of forecasts between the countries, which is one of the main indicators of the effectiveness of the implementation of the results of the project on modernization of the region of Central Asia.

2. The scope and content of the work

During the implementation of the work the Consultant should analyze in detail:

*List and the structure of the operational hydrological forecasts produced by hydro-meteorological services in Central Asia,
*Basic forecasting techniques, which they use;
*The criteria used for verification of skill in hydrological forecasts;
*The criteria used for applicability of methods of hydrological forecasting in operational practice.
*Develop a methodology to assess the quality of long-term hydrological forecasts
*Make recommendations on the necessary criteria for processing methods of forecasts.
*Develop recommendations for preparation of forecasts based on several forecasting methods and for verification of the given forecasts.

In order to satisfy targets and objectives indicated in the given TOR Consultant shall perform:

1.1 Analysis of the regional (Central Asia) and international experience on the verification of the skill in hydrological forecasts, taking into account guideline documents of Hydrometeorological Services of Central Asian States and the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization, including its guideline documents (Guidelines on Hydrological Practices, WMO - 168, WMO Technical Regulations, Volume III, Hydrology);
1.2 Definition of a mandatory list of hydrological forecasts subject to verification of skill;
1.3 Definition and detailed justification for the evaluation (evaluations) of criteria of verification of skill in hydrological forecasts of various characteristics of the water regime of rivers in Central Asia;
1.4 Develop proposals for the verification of skill in forecasting, prepared on the basis of the ensemble approach, and probabilistic forecasts
1.5 Definition and detailed justification of the application criteria of forecasting methods and the need for their processing;
1.6 Definition and justification of evaluation criteria for storm warnings of adverse events (AEs) and dangerous hydrological events (DE), as well as background regional forecasts;
1.7 The development of the draft of methodological guidelines for verification of skill in hydrological forecasts in Central Asia CA. Structure of the guidelines should include the following sections:

a. Field of application methodological guidelines.
b. Definitions, symbols, abbreviations, used in the methodological guidelines.
c. General provisions defining the objectives pursued and characteristics:

*Hydrological forecasts produced in the territory of Central Asia with indication of forms of its presentation (text, tables, etc.) and the content, earliness of forecasts, timing of the release of the main forecast and its refinement (with examples), the mode of dissemination (communication to consumers);
*Warnings of adverse events (AEs) and dangerous events (DE), showing the definitions AEs and DEs, the content (text) of storm warning, earliness of forecasts, the time of issue, order of registration of storm warning (with examples), the mode of dissemination (communication to consumers).

d. The terminology used in hydrological forecasts and warnings, which contains general provisions, the terms used for the flow characteristics (a form of expression of forecast), AEs and DEs, time of occurrence and the end of a dangerous event and / or change the time of its occurrence, area of ??occurrence (with examples).
e. Assessment of the quality of long-term, medium-term and short-term hydrological forecasts, containing sections:
*General provisions;
*Recommendations on methods of assessment of the quality of operational forecasts, average for the time period (day, decade, month, quarter, vegetation period) water flow rate with a detailed description of methods of calculating the margin of error of forecasts, with an explanation of the application of formulas for assessment and examples;
*Recommendations on methods of assessment of the quality of operational forecasts of inflow to the reservoir and clarifications of various lead time, indicating the margin of error of forecasts and ways of its determination, with an explanation of the application of formulas for assessment and examples;
*Assessment of the quality of hydrological AEs and DEs warnings and water and ice regime of rivers (including, if the phenomenon was forecasted and it arose, if the phenomenon was forecasted but did not raise, if the phenomenon was not forecasted but it arose), with explanation of the application of formulas for assessment and examples;
*Verification of the background hydrological warnings about AEs and DEs with examples;
*Verification of efficiency of warnings on hydrological AEs and DEs with examples;
*Calculation of average ratings of verification of skill of hydrological forecasts, warnings for the month, with examples.
*Calculation of average ratings of verification of skill of hydrological forecasts and warnings for the quarter, half year, year (with examples)
*Calculation of average ratings of verification of warnings of hydrological AEs and DEs and RP for the month, quarter, year (with examples).
*Recommendations on the verification of skill of forecasts, prepared on the basis of the ensemble approach, probabilistic forecasts (sample calculations)
*Recommendations on the criteria of application of forecast methods and the need for their processing (sample calculations).
1.8 Compliance with Specialists of NHMS of CA provisions of the draft of guidelines;
1.9 Development of draft of recommendations on methodological testing of the draft of guidelines in NHMS (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan). These recommendations should include:

*Recommended list of hydrological forecasts;
*The recommended time intervals for the verification of forecast skill (several months at different periods of the year);
*Individual cases for assessment of specific hydrological events (if necessary);
*Summary table containing the formula to calculate verification of forecast skill indicating the types of forecasts, lead times, etc.
1.10 Consulting Specialists of NHMS during testing of the proposed algorithms to calculate estimates. Consulting professionals of NHMS during test calculations of verification of forecast skill on the agreed intervals of time (several months at different periods of the year).
1.11 Discussions with Representatives of the NHMS CA identified shortcomings in the process of testing of algorithms. Revising taking into account provided comments.
1.12 Development of proposals for the draft of program of software utilities for the automated analysis of skill verification criteria.
1.13 The development of proposals for training of the personnel on practical application of the guidelines and features of the proposed algorithms (this includes arranging meetings, workshops and establishing of regional training centers).
1.14 If necessary, the Consultant may be given the opportunity to visit NHMS of CA (optionally) to order become familiar with the operational and production activities in the field of hydrological forecasts and obtain the necessary information needed for solving the problems specified in the TOR.

Qualifications

Necessary qualifications of the Consultant:

1. First Consultant - International Consultant (main part of the development of the draft of methods of verification of hydrological forecasts)
a. Must have a degree in "Hydrology" (meteorology, geography, mathematics) and at least a degree of a candidate of physical and mathematical or geographical sciences.
b. Should be an expert in the field of water resources in Central Asia, estimates and forecast of river flow, including flow of mountain rivers.
c. Have knowledge of international practice in the area of ??evaluation and forecast of river flow, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling of spatial-temporal variability of hydrological characteristics.
d. Must have at least 5 years of research experience.

Contact details: Interested individuals, who meet above mentioned qualification requirements may send their Resume in Russian and the English languages not later than May 24, 2013, 16:00, to the address: 720040 Bishkek, Kerimbekova Str. #1, 3rd floor, Room#26, Tel: (0312) 31 44 11; or to e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] . Please indicate the position you are applying in the Subject line of your e-mail letter. Applications without the name of position in the Subject line will not be considered.
Only the most suitable candidates will be invited for the interview. Additional information can be obtained at above mentioned address.

Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Emergency Situation of the Kyrgyz Republic may request to supply additional supporting documents.


720040 Bishkek, Kerimbekova Str. No. 1, 3rd floor, Room No. 26
Tel: (0312) 31 44 11
E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]